Economic Growth in a world of declining resources
Oh, you seriously have to give credit to humanity for our vast success over the last 100+ years in expanding our domains of power and influence.
Any reasonable person must stand in pure awe at what we've accomplished in such a short time.
Anyone who thinks Humans are going belly-up at the first signs of the trouble, we'll of course it's naive to think we nearly 7 billion people on the world don't have a lot of fight left in us, whatever early "signs" we see of our impending disaster.
But what is most amazing is it would seem the vast majority of the world minority who use the greatest amount of resources don't see this coming. They can't see that not only can't we GO ON raising our GNP 5% per year, but that soon we'll be fighting just to keep even!
And we don't even need "declining resources" to fall behind. All we need is "more players", as world population continues to rise and new players like China and India want their share in the pie, and apparently will get it, or whatever they can before the fall. Myself, I feel sorry for their late entry, but maybe they'll spur a "sooner" crash, which will be less steep otherwise.
Success is a deceptive teacher, and we have been well-deceived as a people, distracted from the biological systems that support us into a short term "fix" on cheap fossil fuels.
I believe America can renew itself. I believe necessity is the mother of invention, and that when the crises start exceeding our ability to respond, we'll pull back our expectations and promises and ambitions, and focus on the core issues needed for survival. But must we really wait until then?
A civilization that knows of winter will work hard to create the shelters and food stores to survive through it. A civilization too young to remember what live was like before the lazy days of August will blindly wander into the Fall and Winter unprepared, convinced they can find what they need like our prehistoric ancestors in the tropical jungles.
We've got "good momentum" on our side (infrastructure), but more "bad momentum" - expectations and demands that must keep growing.
I have to wonder what the downslope will look like. What incentive do people have to "work hard", knowing next year, next decade, next generation will have less that we've had, less that we want. What do you give to your children? What do you teach them in a declining world? What knowledge and lessons will be needed in the "slower" lives that must follow?
America has long moved away from community action for collective survival towards surrender to capitalism to provide everything we need. I'm sure capitalism must be a poor model in a declining resource world.
I mean even if I'm a fortunate and kind millionaire, what "investment" is going to give me ANY return at all in my "capital"? A wise millionaire will invest in his/her community, knowing long term investments are what will determine the success of the next generation. However in the fall or depression, local investments will look like "bottomless pits" of need, especially if I'm used to looking at the world from a distance, high above in my skyscraper, looking down at a chessboard.
I can't imagine what the fall will be like in countries like Saudi Arabia where the entire economy is powered by oil, and human labor is to be avoided if your rich, and a dime-a-dozen for workers trying to find a meaningful place. It can't get much worse in quality of life, but everything is yet down to realize that every problem from 100 years ago WILL return, but multipled by the factor of 10 or so in population increase since oil first created wealth there.
The U.S. stands in a privledged place in the world, our dollar being used as the standard of global currency. This privledge has been abused, and we will someday have to pay back our borrowed money, maybe still a good deal for us, but since it must end, again, sooner is better than later.
As an individual I am afraid. I wish there was a way to build a better future now. I can live frugally, without a car, pay down my mortgage, and invest in ways that will reduce my long term need for income. I can garden and grow some of my own food. I can learn, maybe consider what skills I have or may need in the future. But does my "retreat" allow me to consider children? It doesn't allow me to easily invest my time into a doomed future.
As an individual I am a fatalist, a pessimist, just taking what I can while it lasts. To go beyond this and believe in the future, I'm sure I must somehow work together with others.
Yes, like the millionaire in his skyscraper, I look at my own limited ability to live minimally, and see a vast see of unmet needs around me. However well-off I am, there's people now, barely getting by, and getting daily suckered into scams and debt by others for fun and profit. The "vast unmet needs" will grow in a world of declining resources. How can I not be hopeless? How can I made a difference?
For now I'll put my head back in the sand.
Any reasonable person must stand in pure awe at what we've accomplished in such a short time.
Anyone who thinks Humans are going belly-up at the first signs of the trouble, we'll of course it's naive to think we nearly 7 billion people on the world don't have a lot of fight left in us, whatever early "signs" we see of our impending disaster.
But what is most amazing is it would seem the vast majority of the world minority who use the greatest amount of resources don't see this coming. They can't see that not only can't we GO ON raising our GNP 5% per year, but that soon we'll be fighting just to keep even!
And we don't even need "declining resources" to fall behind. All we need is "more players", as world population continues to rise and new players like China and India want their share in the pie, and apparently will get it, or whatever they can before the fall. Myself, I feel sorry for their late entry, but maybe they'll spur a "sooner" crash, which will be less steep otherwise.
Success is a deceptive teacher, and we have been well-deceived as a people, distracted from the biological systems that support us into a short term "fix" on cheap fossil fuels.
I believe America can renew itself. I believe necessity is the mother of invention, and that when the crises start exceeding our ability to respond, we'll pull back our expectations and promises and ambitions, and focus on the core issues needed for survival. But must we really wait until then?
A civilization that knows of winter will work hard to create the shelters and food stores to survive through it. A civilization too young to remember what live was like before the lazy days of August will blindly wander into the Fall and Winter unprepared, convinced they can find what they need like our prehistoric ancestors in the tropical jungles.
We've got "good momentum" on our side (infrastructure), but more "bad momentum" - expectations and demands that must keep growing.
I have to wonder what the downslope will look like. What incentive do people have to "work hard", knowing next year, next decade, next generation will have less that we've had, less that we want. What do you give to your children? What do you teach them in a declining world? What knowledge and lessons will be needed in the "slower" lives that must follow?
America has long moved away from community action for collective survival towards surrender to capitalism to provide everything we need. I'm sure capitalism must be a poor model in a declining resource world.
I mean even if I'm a fortunate and kind millionaire, what "investment" is going to give me ANY return at all in my "capital"? A wise millionaire will invest in his/her community, knowing long term investments are what will determine the success of the next generation. However in the fall or depression, local investments will look like "bottomless pits" of need, especially if I'm used to looking at the world from a distance, high above in my skyscraper, looking down at a chessboard.
I can't imagine what the fall will be like in countries like Saudi Arabia where the entire economy is powered by oil, and human labor is to be avoided if your rich, and a dime-a-dozen for workers trying to find a meaningful place. It can't get much worse in quality of life, but everything is yet down to realize that every problem from 100 years ago WILL return, but multipled by the factor of 10 or so in population increase since oil first created wealth there.
The U.S. stands in a privledged place in the world, our dollar being used as the standard of global currency. This privledge has been abused, and we will someday have to pay back our borrowed money, maybe still a good deal for us, but since it must end, again, sooner is better than later.
As an individual I am afraid. I wish there was a way to build a better future now. I can live frugally, without a car, pay down my mortgage, and invest in ways that will reduce my long term need for income. I can garden and grow some of my own food. I can learn, maybe consider what skills I have or may need in the future. But does my "retreat" allow me to consider children? It doesn't allow me to easily invest my time into a doomed future.
As an individual I am a fatalist, a pessimist, just taking what I can while it lasts. To go beyond this and believe in the future, I'm sure I must somehow work together with others.
Yes, like the millionaire in his skyscraper, I look at my own limited ability to live minimally, and see a vast see of unmet needs around me. However well-off I am, there's people now, barely getting by, and getting daily suckered into scams and debt by others for fun and profit. The "vast unmet needs" will grow in a world of declining resources. How can I not be hopeless? How can I made a difference?
For now I'll put my head back in the sand.
posted by Ares Olympus at 1:42 PM
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