Declining oil
I've long thought the WORST places to live might be in countries with large oil exports, for many reasons, but most of all the simple boom&bust cycle, and population increases during the boom times. Certain Saudi Arabia is in this dilemma, whether in 5 years or 50.
It is ONE thing to imagine world oil production on a 3% or 5% or 8% decline curve, and that will force global restructuring to use less oil. However it would seem being a producing nation under declining production, I can't imagine how any government could deal with that loss of revenue.
Of course "late peakers" can perhaps compensate as increases in prices equal their decreases in production, but "early peakers" are the ones in the most trouble.
I wonder now, thinking how the world will be, and that some countries already are on that path.
Maybe there's no value in worrying about them. Certainly good investments now will help them, although I imagine governments based on "easy money" are largely lubricated by payouts at all levels and when things turn ugly those most profiting now will be preparing for their escape route to safer lands.
Boom&bust cycles are well known, like the gold rushes, but overall too short to cause as serious consequences. Well, I don't expect there's a great number of workers in Alaska working on oil production. However the government gets its taxes and gets distributed to state citizens.
Free wealth like all power risks values and sensibilities being corrupted, but it also allows long term planning and investment. We're all largely in the same boat, having undue wealth from oil, and varied conditions for transitioning to something else later.
Big things happen fast and slow, but I imagine places of boom now and unsustainable population increases will suffer later and large scale migrations will result, someday.
It is sad I feel somewhat protected living in North America. People will survive and they will kill to get what they need, whether land or whatever.
It is surely silly to imagine too far what my fate will be, but I expect locally around the world we can observe places of scarcity as signs of things to spread.
It is ONE thing to imagine world oil production on a 3% or 5% or 8% decline curve, and that will force global restructuring to use less oil. However it would seem being a producing nation under declining production, I can't imagine how any government could deal with that loss of revenue.
Of course "late peakers" can perhaps compensate as increases in prices equal their decreases in production, but "early peakers" are the ones in the most trouble.
I wonder now, thinking how the world will be, and that some countries already are on that path.
Maybe there's no value in worrying about them. Certainly good investments now will help them, although I imagine governments based on "easy money" are largely lubricated by payouts at all levels and when things turn ugly those most profiting now will be preparing for their escape route to safer lands.
Boom&bust cycles are well known, like the gold rushes, but overall too short to cause as serious consequences. Well, I don't expect there's a great number of workers in Alaska working on oil production. However the government gets its taxes and gets distributed to state citizens.
Free wealth like all power risks values and sensibilities being corrupted, but it also allows long term planning and investment. We're all largely in the same boat, having undue wealth from oil, and varied conditions for transitioning to something else later.
Big things happen fast and slow, but I imagine places of boom now and unsustainable population increases will suffer later and large scale migrations will result, someday.
It is sad I feel somewhat protected living in North America. People will survive and they will kill to get what they need, whether land or whatever.
It is surely silly to imagine too far what my fate will be, but I expect locally around the world we can observe places of scarcity as signs of things to spread.
posted by Ares Olympus at 1:41 PM
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