"$8/gal gas for independence" party
After hearing a political debate last night I'm inspired to start my own political party. I'll call it "$8/gal gas for independence". I came up with this catchy title after hearing all the "benefits" of our efforts towards "Energy Independence".
Yes, there's LOTS of benefits out there if enough people are willing to pay for them.
Who will pay for "Energy Independence"? How much will gasoline cost us in this quest (or gallon equivalent) of any energy resource that we have more of than oil?
I expect oil will continue its upward climb whatever we do. Conservation will have a little effect, but more a "personal virtue" as Cheney liked to say. Basically it is "self-interest" in the long run to transition somewhere else. We just don't know what "long run" means.
The happy market-lovers, and we love them too for all their successes, they'll happily believe they'll fix the problem - necessity is the mother of invention, and high prices for oil will lead us to alternatives WHEN they are cost effective.
I accept that truth, at least admitting that markets CAN fail as well, and transition costs may exceed the market's resources to respond, and at some point EVERYONE'S hands will be tied to offer a viable solution, and the economy will sink like the rock that it is.
And yet the Market lovers are right, the survivers will get together and do SOMETHING and we'll make do, EVEN if this magic trick occurs through local currencies when the Dollar is not worth the digital bits its encoded upon in the banks. So the optimists will always save us, even if it means building walled communities to keep out the starving "riff-raff" from the marketeers trying to restore the empire.
Okay, back to reality now, $8 gasoline isn't particularly attractive, and may not even be economically viable. Well I accept the lower 25% of the population will find itself unable to get to work, and there'll be outrage. The problem isn't $8/gallon, but jumping from $2.20/gallon to $8.00/gallon over night. So really I'd mean "$8/gallon" by say 2010. I'd delay longer, but I don't think any more delay is prudent.
Assuming pretaxed gasoline will be $5/gallon in 2010 anyway, we just need to add a $3/gallon tax on top. Given 3 years, that's a friendly $0.25/gallon "rise" per quarter year. That'll give us time to deal with it.
And if my pretax $5/gal gas is really still only $3/gal gas in 2010, then we'll have $6/gallon gas, which is still relatively shocking to project from where we're at, sufficient I hope to promote an early response.
The "answer" for $8/gallon gasoline isn't clear. Ethanol is not clearly scalable to replace gasoline and not clearly produceable without oil inputs which will raise costs. Until we reach the day that farmers themselves can produce ethanol for their own liquid energy needs, I accept ethanol is not ready.
Overall I expect electric engines to replace the internal combustion engine for vehicles into the near future, although that means electrical costs will also tend to rise as gasoline rises.
Mixing wind turbines and plug-in hybrid cars is an attractive mixture - taking wind energy under "low demand" times and storing in batteries means our existing electrical network can display a large amount of oil usage AND reduce CO2 production. That's my best bet now.
I am a pessimist. Our current system survives with middle class buying new cars and lower class buying used cars. That means those least able to afford new technology will bear the brunt of the transition costs, I mean in proportion to their means. I'd like to have sympathy, and yet I know they'll pay sooner or later, and I'd rather people KNOW what to expect, even if their means to respond are limited, they'll be better off KNOWING what's coming, like $8/gallon gasoline in 2010.
The otherside of my party platform is what to do with the new tax income. Some will likely go to offset other taxes reduced, but some needs to be directed to transition costs. One might simply be expanding transit services so people have options to live without a car completely, or be a "one car" family. Light rail is costly, but evidence suggsts where it exists, new development occurs along the lines to take advantage of that and give more options to live car-free.
Solutions are almost easier in metro areas, but rural people won't easily find lifestyles they can accept without a personal vehicle. Smaller, lower power vehicles make sense to me. Farmers ought to look to providing energy for smaller towns - like wind power and biomass. Before the tractor, people depended on animals for labor. Animals took more land for food. It seems either we need to "go back" to using animals more, or finding a substitute that works as well in terms of local energy.
I don't have the answers, but I see the questions won't even be asked as long as we still keep hoping for $0.99 gasoline to return.
Will you join my party? Maybe sign my petition when I run for U.S. Senate in 2008? I might have to work pretty hard for signatures! But the conversations will be worth it!
Yes, there's LOTS of benefits out there if enough people are willing to pay for them.
Who will pay for "Energy Independence"? How much will gasoline cost us in this quest (or gallon equivalent) of any energy resource that we have more of than oil?
I expect oil will continue its upward climb whatever we do. Conservation will have a little effect, but more a "personal virtue" as Cheney liked to say. Basically it is "self-interest" in the long run to transition somewhere else. We just don't know what "long run" means.
The happy market-lovers, and we love them too for all their successes, they'll happily believe they'll fix the problem - necessity is the mother of invention, and high prices for oil will lead us to alternatives WHEN they are cost effective.
I accept that truth, at least admitting that markets CAN fail as well, and transition costs may exceed the market's resources to respond, and at some point EVERYONE'S hands will be tied to offer a viable solution, and the economy will sink like the rock that it is.
And yet the Market lovers are right, the survivers will get together and do SOMETHING and we'll make do, EVEN if this magic trick occurs through local currencies when the Dollar is not worth the digital bits its encoded upon in the banks. So the optimists will always save us, even if it means building walled communities to keep out the starving "riff-raff" from the marketeers trying to restore the empire.
Okay, back to reality now, $8 gasoline isn't particularly attractive, and may not even be economically viable. Well I accept the lower 25% of the population will find itself unable to get to work, and there'll be outrage. The problem isn't $8/gallon, but jumping from $2.20/gallon to $8.00/gallon over night. So really I'd mean "$8/gallon" by say 2010. I'd delay longer, but I don't think any more delay is prudent.
Assuming pretaxed gasoline will be $5/gallon in 2010 anyway, we just need to add a $3/gallon tax on top. Given 3 years, that's a friendly $0.25/gallon "rise" per quarter year. That'll give us time to deal with it.
And if my pretax $5/gal gas is really still only $3/gal gas in 2010, then we'll have $6/gallon gas, which is still relatively shocking to project from where we're at, sufficient I hope to promote an early response.
The "answer" for $8/gallon gasoline isn't clear. Ethanol is not clearly scalable to replace gasoline and not clearly produceable without oil inputs which will raise costs. Until we reach the day that farmers themselves can produce ethanol for their own liquid energy needs, I accept ethanol is not ready.
Overall I expect electric engines to replace the internal combustion engine for vehicles into the near future, although that means electrical costs will also tend to rise as gasoline rises.
Mixing wind turbines and plug-in hybrid cars is an attractive mixture - taking wind energy under "low demand" times and storing in batteries means our existing electrical network can display a large amount of oil usage AND reduce CO2 production. That's my best bet now.
I am a pessimist. Our current system survives with middle class buying new cars and lower class buying used cars. That means those least able to afford new technology will bear the brunt of the transition costs, I mean in proportion to their means. I'd like to have sympathy, and yet I know they'll pay sooner or later, and I'd rather people KNOW what to expect, even if their means to respond are limited, they'll be better off KNOWING what's coming, like $8/gallon gasoline in 2010.
The otherside of my party platform is what to do with the new tax income. Some will likely go to offset other taxes reduced, but some needs to be directed to transition costs. One might simply be expanding transit services so people have options to live without a car completely, or be a "one car" family. Light rail is costly, but evidence suggsts where it exists, new development occurs along the lines to take advantage of that and give more options to live car-free.
Solutions are almost easier in metro areas, but rural people won't easily find lifestyles they can accept without a personal vehicle. Smaller, lower power vehicles make sense to me. Farmers ought to look to providing energy for smaller towns - like wind power and biomass. Before the tractor, people depended on animals for labor. Animals took more land for food. It seems either we need to "go back" to using animals more, or finding a substitute that works as well in terms of local energy.
I don't have the answers, but I see the questions won't even be asked as long as we still keep hoping for $0.99 gasoline to return.
Will you join my party? Maybe sign my petition when I run for U.S. Senate in 2008? I might have to work pretty hard for signatures! But the conversations will be worth it!
posted by Ares Olympus at 7:05 PM
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