Denial and irrational market faith
I went to a discussion on the price of gasoline:
http://citizensleague.org/events/past/2007/07/policy_and_a_pi_6.php
Overall a disappointing discussion, even if both speakers tried their best. Of course I wanted "peak oil" to be discussed - the idea that world oil production will start to decline sooner than most think.
The closest we came to a "deadline" was dividing a supposed reserves of 1200Bbbl by annual consumption, 31Bbbl to get 38 years AND admit that consumption will keep growing so the date will be sooner. No recognition at all that the "second half" of world oil production will be slower and harder than the first, and that oil production MUST decline much sooner than oil runs out and we have no experience with such a useful and irreplacable resource becoming less and less available.
So there's just no serious (mainstream) public voice calling for imminent danger of oil shortages. The best they could do is say it is LIKELY that oil prices will be higher in 5 years than now.
They said ideally we'd compute "hidden costs" of oil consumption and add it on as a tax, but that the american people are dead against their money going to taxes (although willing to let their money go to Venesuela and Saudi Arabia.)
True, my opinions don't vary from that, except to say IF we CHOOSE to BLINDLY continue to depend on oil that which we can't guarantee to be there for us in the future, then it's our own damn faults when geology or politics start trying to reduce our easy options.
For individuals I say "Plan on $10 gasoline" and that is perhaps all you can do, even if $10 gasoline will have a multipler effect on all goods and services as well, but its a starting place for realistic assessment. Overall, I think our economy CAN run on $10 gasoline, at least given how much less we COULD drive if we HAD to.
There was a hand-raising survey, "What price will you stop driving at?" and a large number (including me) said any price (and I don't even have a car myself). Even when I did have a car, I NEVER commuted daily with a car, and pretty much never drove more than 4000 miles/year, and some years perhaps closer to 2000. If I had a car, I'm already throwing out lots of money, so I'd drive it, even at $100 gasoline - just less miles! Not everyone is as free as me to reduce driving I know, but they'd better learn their options!
Anyway, mostly my thoughts on leaving the discussion is that human nature is always short sighted and prone to discounting long term dangers. It is funny that there's like a 1 in 1 million chance a huge meteor will hit the earth in the next say 40 years, and a 100% chance we're going to be using much less oil in 40 years than now. The "value" of oil ought to be based on what it'll be worth in 40 years, not now, when we're guzzling it away.
I suppose there's always a shadow side playing with us. We have exaggerated security in the way things are, and in the dark corners of our lives, an exaggerated fear that our prosperity will be ripped out from under us by forces beyond our control.
I try myself to BELIEVE in that 100% that oil MUST diminish, but I still go on as-if the economy made sense and could go on indefinitely. No, not exactly, but my "panic" is still in the dark corners. Fear teaches me to reduce my debt, reduce my need for a high income to continue my lifestyle, and gratitude for my income, BUT I'll as easily go about my hobbies and interests like all is well.
I think SERIOUS beleivers ought to be like missionaries, calling for the end-days, devoting our remaining time to the service of humanity and those less fortunate than us. SERIOUSLY, its about the only sensible response I know, EXCEPT there's a little devil in me who says there's more FUN things to do with my time than serve the weak and drug-muddled souls of the world. I mean I can't really save them, even if I was religious. I know they're no more likely than me to have positive action to respond to future risk.
I sort of agree with the Pope and others, to hold life-affirming values, but in practice, it is very easy to be pessimistic, hopeless that "all can be saved", so why not focus my attention on those closest to me?
I'm mostly sad, filled with elistist thoughts, that so many people are so easily seduced into false promises given to them to sign over their time for beads and trinkets. I pretend I'm less seduced, at least I fear even the sincere promises are temporary.
In short, the consciousness for change has not yet arrived. People are still looking in the wrong direction for salvation. They still think technology and good work can allow our unsustainable lives to be sustained. Until this consciousness is fully disillusioned, or at least by some critical mass, we must just keep waiting, and preparing as we are inspired and able.
I'm in denial too, since I don't want the party to end either...
http://citizensleague.org/events/past/2007/07/policy_and_a_pi_6.php
Overall a disappointing discussion, even if both speakers tried their best. Of course I wanted "peak oil" to be discussed - the idea that world oil production will start to decline sooner than most think.
The closest we came to a "deadline" was dividing a supposed reserves of 1200Bbbl by annual consumption, 31Bbbl to get 38 years AND admit that consumption will keep growing so the date will be sooner. No recognition at all that the "second half" of world oil production will be slower and harder than the first, and that oil production MUST decline much sooner than oil runs out and we have no experience with such a useful and irreplacable resource becoming less and less available.
So there's just no serious (mainstream) public voice calling for imminent danger of oil shortages. The best they could do is say it is LIKELY that oil prices will be higher in 5 years than now.
They said ideally we'd compute "hidden costs" of oil consumption and add it on as a tax, but that the american people are dead against their money going to taxes (although willing to let their money go to Venesuela and Saudi Arabia.)
True, my opinions don't vary from that, except to say IF we CHOOSE to BLINDLY continue to depend on oil that which we can't guarantee to be there for us in the future, then it's our own damn faults when geology or politics start trying to reduce our easy options.
For individuals I say "Plan on $10 gasoline" and that is perhaps all you can do, even if $10 gasoline will have a multipler effect on all goods and services as well, but its a starting place for realistic assessment. Overall, I think our economy CAN run on $10 gasoline, at least given how much less we COULD drive if we HAD to.
There was a hand-raising survey, "What price will you stop driving at?" and a large number (including me) said any price (and I don't even have a car myself). Even when I did have a car, I NEVER commuted daily with a car, and pretty much never drove more than 4000 miles/year, and some years perhaps closer to 2000. If I had a car, I'm already throwing out lots of money, so I'd drive it, even at $100 gasoline - just less miles! Not everyone is as free as me to reduce driving I know, but they'd better learn their options!
Anyway, mostly my thoughts on leaving the discussion is that human nature is always short sighted and prone to discounting long term dangers. It is funny that there's like a 1 in 1 million chance a huge meteor will hit the earth in the next say 40 years, and a 100% chance we're going to be using much less oil in 40 years than now. The "value" of oil ought to be based on what it'll be worth in 40 years, not now, when we're guzzling it away.
I suppose there's always a shadow side playing with us. We have exaggerated security in the way things are, and in the dark corners of our lives, an exaggerated fear that our prosperity will be ripped out from under us by forces beyond our control.
I try myself to BELIEVE in that 100% that oil MUST diminish, but I still go on as-if the economy made sense and could go on indefinitely. No, not exactly, but my "panic" is still in the dark corners. Fear teaches me to reduce my debt, reduce my need for a high income to continue my lifestyle, and gratitude for my income, BUT I'll as easily go about my hobbies and interests like all is well.
I think SERIOUS beleivers ought to be like missionaries, calling for the end-days, devoting our remaining time to the service of humanity and those less fortunate than us. SERIOUSLY, its about the only sensible response I know, EXCEPT there's a little devil in me who says there's more FUN things to do with my time than serve the weak and drug-muddled souls of the world. I mean I can't really save them, even if I was religious. I know they're no more likely than me to have positive action to respond to future risk.
I sort of agree with the Pope and others, to hold life-affirming values, but in practice, it is very easy to be pessimistic, hopeless that "all can be saved", so why not focus my attention on those closest to me?
I'm mostly sad, filled with elistist thoughts, that so many people are so easily seduced into false promises given to them to sign over their time for beads and trinkets. I pretend I'm less seduced, at least I fear even the sincere promises are temporary.
In short, the consciousness for change has not yet arrived. People are still looking in the wrong direction for salvation. They still think technology and good work can allow our unsustainable lives to be sustained. Until this consciousness is fully disillusioned, or at least by some critical mass, we must just keep waiting, and preparing as we are inspired and able.
I'm in denial too, since I don't want the party to end either...
posted by Ares Olympus at 8:41 PM
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