Sunday, March 11, 2007

Debt

I worry about the future, my dependence upon a seemingly insane economic system built on debt and a dependency upon ever increasing consumption to continue the pyramid scheme going.

A friend of mine, a believer in positive thinking, and that thoughts can affect reality, said I should EXPECT there'll be plenty to help others.

My silent response is no, my vote is for $5/gallon gasoline this summer. What does it take to convince people there are serious problems ahead? Concince people to convince politicians that conservation ought to be the top priority, and redesigning our lifestyles to run without continual increases in consumption.

I don't know really, what things ought to be done. I don't think policitians are much smarter than me, if they do peek at the truth of our risks. It's not even that there's no dialogue going on on renewable energy. Minnesota will move from 10% ethanol in our fuel to 20% by some year. We're expanding wind power. Lots of good projects that offer some good.

Basically the message I wish that could get out is the idea that the cost of living must increase in the future with energy costs. I'd like to believe the "economy" (i.e. "our jobs") can continue smoothly into a higher cost future, but overall I think there can be no security for any of us - most of all for carrying debt.

I feel dependent with mortgage debt, the debt with the lowest interest, smallest risk to lenders. I'll admit my perhaps foolish 5-year ARM mortgage, calculated to save money if I pay down a good fraction of the principle in the first 5 years. That is, I'll pay down the principle close to $110,000 in 5 years with luck, and $120k left. So if my rate jumps from 4.75% to say 8% after a couple years, I'm still ahead as long as I continue extra payments, I'm ahead.

I've done my reading about ideas that the financial world allows the banks to create money through loans - allowing up to 90% of money to be based on debt. I can deny this a little - at least for equity-based debt - property - which has some real value. I figure investing in my home strengthens my position whatever happens.

Beyond mortgages I must admit I don't see what money is about. I don't trust the stock market. I think anyone foolish enough to live from credit card minimum payments is in trouble under any economy.

I must admit I can't imagine any security being an "investor" in banks, credit cards. Someone is making lots of money now, but it seems to me like it has to be a business where people are ready to jump ship when things are looking down.

It is curious. I imagine the HARDEST place is to have large wealth and need to invest it somewhere. Maybe there are 50% wealthy suckers out there ready to take the fall when the shit hits the fan? Someone must lose, and that's where I imagine our economy must fail. It's a great scheme as long as things are going up, but how many wealthy people will take a guaranteed loss when things go down? Those "in the know" will protect themselves, and the rest will pay.

Back to the average people, my happy friend wanting positive thinking to keep the game running, I still have to say no, sorry, the game can't last. Best to take what you have now, conserve, invest in ways to protect your future.

I don't know any good advice for those who are already deep in debt. Perhaps this "scheme" can still work for them? Perhaps when they lose their job they can just declare bankruptsy? Perhaps the bill collectors will get overwhelmed and ignore you?

I just have to wonder what govermment and community owes to speculators, owes to people who stretch their resources too far and enslave their futures?

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