Time to give up?

With the bailout of the FM siblings, it's another domino in a pattern that would seem to have no end in sight. Along with this bad news, its reported the 2008 federal deficit will be around $407B, and $438B next year, and those estimates are before this newest bailout.

At a personal level I could judge I'm doing well. Whatever risk I hold, there's nothing more I can do but spend conservatively, pay down debt, and if I have anything left over, invest in things that can reduce my future expenses if I lose my job. So my personal living choices is already "in depression times". Sure, I throw out a couple thousand a year in "discretionary spending", but I know I can dry up 3/4 of that spending in an instance if I need to.

Today also was "primary day", a pretty boring election, voted in the Independence Party primary for Senate (Go Barkley!), and some city council seats. Anyway, I'll participate in politics, but mostly I feel hopeless anything can be done to change things for the better. Every "medicine" we want to take tastes "too bitter" to swallow willingly, so the "pretending" must go on longer, until all remaining distractions and false hopes evaporate.

So onto my title "Time to give up?" well "NO, if you've got a good job...", but it's time to think of the future where things MUST be different.

I know even in the "worst economic times" SOMEONE can prosper, and perhaps it'll be me if I happen upon a job that can keep the money flowing. Such people will keep their heads in the sand as long as they can, and they can get away with it. Well, since I don't know I could still question where I am, if there are BIG choices I could make now that will be harder in the future.

Basically I have to accept massive financial irresponsibility can have no final effect other than massive currency inflation, which MEANS holding onto money is a losing game, and holding onto "fixed interest debt" is a fun game, at least if you can keep your job. Well, I don't like either game, prefer "divestment", paying down mortgage debt now. Even if I can never sell my house for what it's supposely worth, it's a hard asset that had some functional value - people live in houses for instance! Gardens can be made, resources held, and even small businesses started. Whatever the future holds, if where I live will have people, a home is worth something.

I've read from Wendell Berry, and one book of essays called "Home Economics" which collectively suggest that communities are stronger when "home" means something more than a place to sleep or consume. Rather a home is a place of work in itself, and worth more than money, while modern households while liberating women from the druggery of housework and cooking, have de-stabilized them since they now require two full-time incomes to maintain. So anyway, I see there's some virtue in "unemployment" and "underemployment" if it leaves time for the sort of work and effort that reduces the need for money.

And of course a household doesn't exist in a vacuum, but as a part of a wider community. Consumer culture has taught us to ignore our neighbors, and buy the goods and services we need. There is a "time efficiency" of our system - the middle class can earn a lot more than they need, and rather than wasting time sharing and caring about the needs of neighbors, it's all dumped on the government, and assumed everything can keep going without paying attention.

If American was filled by true self-sufficient households, all conservatively living within their means, paying down debt, investing in the future, I'd not worry as much about the "fall of the U.S. Dollar". Whatever happened, it would ONLY be an irresponsible government to be "cleaned up", and communities could "take care of their own". Without debt, continuous employment is less vital and we could "handle" 20% unemployment. But the problem is when the government falls in our system of strained household FINANCIAL and TIME budgets, there's no safety margin. Too many households are "one lost job" or "one illness" away from bankruptsy or foreclosure. SO we expect the wider government to SAVE US, and this can ultimately done very inefficiently, at a very high cost.

I must admit I never much thought before why "unemployment" was such a big thing to the government, who policitians love so much to talk about "job creation". It's a GREAT thing if government can encourage new jobs to be created, BUT ultimately the government can't defend jobs without punishing some people with higher taxes (for being in the wrong job). All transitions are tricky and painful, and some will suffer more than others.

So I've given up believing we can "save the dollar", but I recognize there must be safety nets thrown to those who are hurt, whether or not they deserve it. Well, so that takes me to Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, and its a HUGE example where we had to SAVE something whose failure would hurt MANY despite also MOST helping those who have already benefited by the irresponsibility.

Inflation will be the result as I've said, because its easier to steal money by deflating its worth than to tax it away, so those responsible (and lucky) enough to save will bail out those who foolishly overextended themselves in debt.

It's easy to try to judge. I wish I had SOME solution that had an ounce of "accountability" and a sense of "collective sacrifice" to a better future. I'm sure people WOULD accept hardship if they thought it was working towards something better.

I suppose for me the problem is "something better" doesn't mean better than NOW, merely better than what WILL COME if we do nothing. If your choice is to lose half of your pay NOW, and find a comfortable frugal retirement 5 years later than you planned, OR lose three quarters of your income a bit LATER, lose your home a bit LATER, never retire, and live in a public housing apartment with 4 other families, WELL, I'm sure everyone will take the first, BUT who's to say what the future holds? Who's to say what financial responsibility looks like? And who's to say YOUR sacrifice now is sufficient if you're just a drop in the bucket in a sea of denial. WIll you take your half-income, delayed retirement sacrifice KNOWING others are still getting rich off the hard work and sacrifice of others?

Capitalism is a wondrous thing in empowering people to isolate their decisions, take risks in directions they believe can strengthen in the future. BUT unmoderated, and under too much fog of greed and self-interest, I'm sure it breaks down.

Again, easy to imagine nonsense, and I don't know anything except I don't like the idea of letting the "greed of others" hurt my properity. I suppose if I could believe the era of "cheap energy" would last forever, my pessimism might be moderated.

So mostly I write now, wondering if I'm really as pessimistic as I talk, ARE their choices I'm neglecting NOW that I ought to consider? I suppose it's most of all that I really appreciate all the freedom in this life, and will be sorry to lose it. I'm lamenting a world that can't be saved. I'd rather spend my energy "playing" with what time I have left, learning, challenging, than fighting for a positive future I could believe in.

What would give me hope is to hear a politician speak my speak "We're in for harder times. We've had it easy, and we've done some great things, but things change. The only bright future I can imagine can only come if we open our eyes to our excesses, trim back the fat of our laziness and expectations. There's no easy answers, and there's no one to blame but ourselves. If you've got a good job, feel lucky. Use all you can to pay down your debt and help family members, friends or partners less lucky than you. If you're underemployed, find family members, friends, or partners to reduce your living expenses. And if you're unemployed, do the same and more, and see what "unmet needs" exist around you that fit within your strengths to fill, money or not.

That's "depression era" talk, and its the only language I know that would give me hope. Anything short of that is lies and delusion, as great as the greatest alcoholic worshiping in the river of denial.

I know, my "hope" is limited. I mean it EXISTS anytime collective hardship appears, and it feels good because it empowers. It redirects ambition into caring and concern for others. It opens hearts and inspires creativity to the common good. I just don't know where the SWITCH exists, how to live in THAT world "a little bit". It's like something that is ALL OR NOTHING. Once the threats weaken, we all get back our wishes for personal fulfillment, and there's just so much time in the day.

I know prosperty is good. People who "feel secure" can be more easily generous, and its not even a virtue, but can be a nagging emptiness - to make sense of our good fortunes. Sharing is real, but its limited.

And I don't know how to reconsile the faith that the self-interest of capitalism doesn't help others as well. All of life seeks to expand and create, and we've done great things.

I have a belief we live "dishonest" lives for depending upon fossil fuels to carry us. Maybe a future can come where we further escape our dependence upon "unsustainable energy sources"? Maybe my delusion that we can ever "go back" to a time of "tribes" and rigid "gender roles" that closed choices for individuals for the benefit of the group.

Anyway, I just have to believe ALL experiments in democracy and capitalism are UNDERTESTED when we've only used them in times of growing power. The question to me is what supports us when our excesses finally catch up?

I have to believe "tribalism" must return - whether it takes the form of extended families, small businesses, religious communities, or small goverment associations, or all of the above in concert, hardship brings people together.

I suppose I think as well that "hard times" mean individual confidence is based partly on "what you have to give". We've lived a long time where a paycheck is our only measure of social rank. But money success doesn't mean communal success. We'd ALL better work on skills besides what keeps our paychecks flowing.

Doom and gloom are fun to imagine, and hard to live with.

The sun is setting, and we don't know how dark it'll get. What will you do before the evening light fades? What can wait until later? Hard unknowable questions...