Intellectual arrogance
I listened to a great interview online:
****
Queensland Australia Parliament member Andrew McNamara speaks to David Room about discovering peak oil, explaining oil depletion to his colleagues and his constituents, and previews his state's oil vulnerability task force. This appears be the world's first known study of a region's vulnerability to energy shortages due to global oil peak.
****
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/466
I'm very impressed by his clarity of thought and understanding of the issues.
I just notice in comparison my own arrogance, pretending I know the issues, yet not taking much personal risk in spreading the word. This politician has risked his own electability to bring up an issue that the average American politician doesn't even believe exists.
Admittingly myself, I've been watching the weekly oil and gasoline price trends like a good baseball game or olympic event. (When will we beat the 4 minute mile? When will oil break the $120/bbl barrier or $4/gallon gasoline?)
If I were to bet 12 months ago whether oil would exceed $70/bbl now, I simply wouldn't have taken the bet. REALLY I accept statistically prices are fear-based as much as economic measure. People are BETTING on higher prices because demand isn't weakening, but the silly market can reverse quickly.
If I were to make a bet for the future (no risk), I'd "hope for" price spike time-table:
1) $90 oil by November 1, 2005
2) $120 oil by September 1, 2006 (Maybe we'll call it Hurricane Jack?)
3) $180 oil by September 1, 2007 (Civil war in OPEC exporter country X)
But if we're talking "extremes", we might as well guess:
1) $25 oil by Sept 1, 2006 (Due to global economic recession)
2) $15 oil by Sep 1, 2008 (Second recession)
In SHORT policy CAN'T be set by market prices.
I'd implement gasoline taxes: ($1.00 increase per year for 4 years)
1) Now ~$0.40/gallon (Federal+State)
2) January 2006 - $1.00/gallon
3) July 2006 - $1.50/gallon
4) January 2007 - $2.00/gallon
5) July 2007 - $2.50/gallon
6) January 2008 - $3.00/gallon
7) July 2008 - $3.50/gallon
8) January 2009 - $4.00/gallon
This policy is recommended by me is acceptable regardess of market prices - whether $10/bbl or $200/bbl. (Wholesale gasoline $0.30/gallon or $6.50/gallon)
Sure $10/gallon gasoline is frightening BUT if it happens, the high tax will continue doing exactly what we want - reducing demand and encouraging increased efficiency.
That's my "publicly" risky assertion, but of course I'm just blogging on a lonely corner of the internet.
LASTLY, there's at least a 50-50 chance that President Bush will authorize release of oil from the strategic reserve to counter short term losses from Hurricane Katrina. I've supported Bush's resistance to tap the reserves merely for high prices. I lean always against tapping reserves (What affect will tapping have on prices now VERSUS chances for lower prices in the future to restore the reserves?) I'd "compromise" tapping the reserves in exchange for a gasoline tax bill as suggested above, but I know it won't happen.
Well, that still goes back to my arrogance. I play the moral high ground for higher taxes, but I don't really want to play the bad guy and say so publicly. I can't overly attack polititians' weakness if I still have doubts on the policy.
At least higher prices have shown some of the fears have been exaggerated. (I remember Bob Dole in 1996 suggesting we repeal a $0.04/gallon gasoline tax to counter higher prices while he was running for president!) STILL, I accept the argument that "spikes" can be smoothed through rainy-day funds. Airlines can go months on $70/bbl oil, but not clearly years. Similarly small businesses and individuals have savings and credit options to try to run through the spike without changing behavior.
I accept the 18-month rule for economic lagging indicators. I accept if prices evens stay above $60/bbl (much less rise) for the next 18 months, there WILL be wide-spread economic woes as a result. Inflation in the least. Bankruptsy, foreclosures, and unemployment secondary.
Of course my wild demand for $4.00/gallon tax by 2009 is unrealistic on what the economy can handle. I can't ultimately defend it EXCEPT by necessity of fear.
****
Queensland Australia Parliament member Andrew McNamara speaks to David Room about discovering peak oil, explaining oil depletion to his colleagues and his constituents, and previews his state's oil vulnerability task force. This appears be the world's first known study of a region's vulnerability to energy shortages due to global oil peak.
****
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/466
I'm very impressed by his clarity of thought and understanding of the issues.
I just notice in comparison my own arrogance, pretending I know the issues, yet not taking much personal risk in spreading the word. This politician has risked his own electability to bring up an issue that the average American politician doesn't even believe exists.
Admittingly myself, I've been watching the weekly oil and gasoline price trends like a good baseball game or olympic event. (When will we beat the 4 minute mile? When will oil break the $120/bbl barrier or $4/gallon gasoline?)
If I were to bet 12 months ago whether oil would exceed $70/bbl now, I simply wouldn't have taken the bet. REALLY I accept statistically prices are fear-based as much as economic measure. People are BETTING on higher prices because demand isn't weakening, but the silly market can reverse quickly.
If I were to make a bet for the future (no risk), I'd "hope for" price spike time-table:
1) $90 oil by November 1, 2005
2) $120 oil by September 1, 2006 (Maybe we'll call it Hurricane Jack?)
3) $180 oil by September 1, 2007 (Civil war in OPEC exporter country X)
But if we're talking "extremes", we might as well guess:
1) $25 oil by Sept 1, 2006 (Due to global economic recession)
2) $15 oil by Sep 1, 2008 (Second recession)
In SHORT policy CAN'T be set by market prices.
I'd implement gasoline taxes: ($1.00 increase per year for 4 years)
1) Now ~$0.40/gallon (Federal+State)
2) January 2006 - $1.00/gallon
3) July 2006 - $1.50/gallon
4) January 2007 - $2.00/gallon
5) July 2007 - $2.50/gallon
6) January 2008 - $3.00/gallon
7) July 2008 - $3.50/gallon
8) January 2009 - $4.00/gallon
This policy is recommended by me is acceptable regardess of market prices - whether $10/bbl or $200/bbl. (Wholesale gasoline $0.30/gallon or $6.50/gallon)
Sure $10/gallon gasoline is frightening BUT if it happens, the high tax will continue doing exactly what we want - reducing demand and encouraging increased efficiency.
That's my "publicly" risky assertion, but of course I'm just blogging on a lonely corner of the internet.
LASTLY, there's at least a 50-50 chance that President Bush will authorize release of oil from the strategic reserve to counter short term losses from Hurricane Katrina. I've supported Bush's resistance to tap the reserves merely for high prices. I lean always against tapping reserves (What affect will tapping have on prices now VERSUS chances for lower prices in the future to restore the reserves?) I'd "compromise" tapping the reserves in exchange for a gasoline tax bill as suggested above, but I know it won't happen.
Well, that still goes back to my arrogance. I play the moral high ground for higher taxes, but I don't really want to play the bad guy and say so publicly. I can't overly attack polititians' weakness if I still have doubts on the policy.
At least higher prices have shown some of the fears have been exaggerated. (I remember Bob Dole in 1996 suggesting we repeal a $0.04/gallon gasoline tax to counter higher prices while he was running for president!) STILL, I accept the argument that "spikes" can be smoothed through rainy-day funds. Airlines can go months on $70/bbl oil, but not clearly years. Similarly small businesses and individuals have savings and credit options to try to run through the spike without changing behavior.
I accept the 18-month rule for economic lagging indicators. I accept if prices evens stay above $60/bbl (much less rise) for the next 18 months, there WILL be wide-spread economic woes as a result. Inflation in the least. Bankruptsy, foreclosures, and unemployment secondary.
Of course my wild demand for $4.00/gallon tax by 2009 is unrealistic on what the economy can handle. I can't ultimately defend it EXCEPT by necessity of fear.
posted by Ares Olympus at 4:54 PM
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