Models for Economic decline

Conservation isn't glamourous, although it can save money.

However conservation alone "can't save us" from an unsustainable future.

We need POLICY: (Heads up political representatives!)

Policy ought to:
1) Set a goal.
2) Draw a map to get there.
3) Measure progress.
4) Evaluate map effectiveness and adjust.
5) Evaluate goal effectiveness and adjust.
6) Repeat until goal reached.

Got it? I made that up, but it sounds BRILLIANT!

So where are we?
1) Set goal:
--> Increase U.S. oil consumption by 50% by 2020.
2) Draw a map:
--> Military force, subsidize oil companies, subsidize economic "growth" in any form.
3) Measure progress:
--> Oil consumption keeps increasing.
4) Evaluate for map effectiveness:
--> World oil space capacity plummets, prices skyrocket
--> Adjust? Spend more on military, oil companies, and encourage more debt everywhere.
5) Evaluate for goal effectiveness:
--> Looks pretty good, except for prices. I especially like A/C in my car on hot days because my house doesn't have A/C and I can sit inside my car in my driveway staying cool while watch the birds and squirrels through the windows and wonder how they stand the humidity and heat. Sometimes my car engine starts to overheat because it's sucking in it's own waste heat sitting in my driveway so I have to drive around the block for a while to cool the engine...
--> Adjust - Well, the summer is almost over, so I don't need A/C any more... Maybe next summer I'll try some conservation.

Seriously, we need a little better work on #5: OUR GOAL

MAYBE unlimited economic growth ISN'T the end-all be-all of existence!

Is it conceivable to not only accept limits to growth but actually admit we're already in "overshoot" and had better try reducing our consumption before nature forces us?

At least high oil prices (and Natural Gas I guess too) offer some hint for a different direction.

I believe President Carter in the 1970's set goals for limiting U.S. imports for oil.

Currently the U.S uses about 21 million barrels of oil per day and import 2/3 of it, and this fraction will relentlessly increase (if the world let's us).

What if we said: The U.S. will not import more than 50% of our oil consumption. i.e. Require domestic production to equal imports. Sounds good, but we have to back track from 65% now.

Okay, a map:
2005: 65% imports
2006: 60% imports
2007: 55% imports
2008: 50% imports
2009: 50% imports
...

Pretty good! The world will be grateful! With our conservation, world prices will likely drop dramatically, and we'll be happy.

Of course U.S. production continues to drop:
2005: 7.5mb/d - total 21mb/day consumption
2006: 6.75mb/d - total 16.9mb/day consumption
2007: 6.5mb/d - total 14.4mb/day
2008: 6.25mb/d - total 12.5mb/day
2011: 5.5mb/d - total 11 mb/day
2016: 5mb/d - total 10 mb/day
2021: 4.5mb/d - total 9mb/day
2026: 4mb/d - total 8 mb/day

WELL, made up numbers, but the serious response means we have to cut our consumption by 50% in 5 years! Are we up to it? I don't know because we're not looking that way! At least the imports are kept limited by our local production.

What would it be like to actually participate in an economic which VALUES decline?

Probably something fully unlike what we know today.

Okay, I'm dreaming, but it's late. I know it's a sad dream, worthy of lots of tears, but addicts sometimes need that, you know?