The biofuel economy?
Let's say you're a farmer. Let's say you are SICK and TIRED of being dependent upon ever increasing fuel costs. SO you decide to produce all your own fuel.
Well, energy independent farmers seems like a nice option if they could do it.
The main issue is of course not simply whether a farm might be "energy independent" but whether a farm can ALSO have some crops left over in excess of providing for it's own needs. Subsistent farming won't make it since there will always be things it is more cost effective to buy.
So what sorts of energy can a farm produce?
(1) Ethanol from corn? (with coproducts)
(2) Ethanol from cellulous material?!
(3) Biodiesel from soybeans (with coproducts)
(4) Wind power from turbines.
(5) Solar electricity from PV cells..
(6) Solar heat for water heating.
What energy does it need?
(1) Engine fuel to run tractors, machinery.
(2) Electricity for pumping water for irrigation
(3) Nitrogen fertilizer production.
(4) Energy for ethanol production
I'm sure the issue will arise between purchasing external fuel at a cost $X, or investing $Y start up costs plus $Z proportional costs to produce energy locally. And on top of that, there's also going to be interest payments on debt borrowed for the start up costs.
In the end you'll likely see "local production" costs exceed external purchase costs, since purchased costs are based on unsustainable source of cheap fossil fuels. So if you're a farmer over your head in debt, do you get further in debt for the luxury of paying more for your energy? How can farm debt ever be repaid if you can't compete with other farmers who follow the cheap and easy path?
Current "market values" of farm products may not even pay for the costs of sustainably producing them. That is perhaps your self-sustaining farm might end up spending $50,000 on debt interest and repayment, and your entire crop might only be worth $30,000 at market values. According to economy theory your farm is "inefficient" and deserves to fail.
I expect our whole economy is full of such examples, and you can't blame the farmers for taking the "bottom line" decisions against renewable energy.
Of course if the oil market finally fails us, someday we're going to have to pay the real costs. I can see "fossil fuels" as a one time resource that invested wisely might promote a lower energy future. At least in regards to paying down debt, it seems an acceptable trade off. Life is about incremental improvements, and given a long term perspective times of prosperity can be considered times for investing in the future, in ways that will promise more security to manage the weaker years.
It's true for all of us - how much do we invest now when we have abundance to cover the weaker years?
I remember reading that men's brains are more lateralized, and this allows both more geniuses as well as more mentally deficit men. Women's brains apparently have more "redundancy" which is important in a dangerous world, and they can recover better from head injury and live longer as well.
It seems like modern society's focus on specialization is like that. We build a house of cards, each level built on the last, higher and higher, ever increasing our ability to exploit the resources around us. This "male" perspective leads to short term power and wealth, but fails to plan for the long term demands upon us.
Redundancy protects long term survival at the cost of short term wealth and efficiency. Another way to see redundancy is cooperation. It means sharing costs to keep a healthy system that can sustain "illness" and failure of components.
I imagine the future, if we are wise will be about new cooperatives between producers and consumers that benefit both - guaranteeing stable markets for producers, even at somewhat higher short tern costs to consumers. Globals will call this "protectionism", and perhaps it is when implemented purely from the top-down, but if it is implemented by cooperative decision, how can it be bad?
Actual forms are not yet clear, but the direction seems unavoidable. Sooner or later the big systems will fail us, and we'd better hope cooperation and redundancy can take up the slack.
Well, energy independent farmers seems like a nice option if they could do it.
The main issue is of course not simply whether a farm might be "energy independent" but whether a farm can ALSO have some crops left over in excess of providing for it's own needs. Subsistent farming won't make it since there will always be things it is more cost effective to buy.
So what sorts of energy can a farm produce?
(1) Ethanol from corn? (with coproducts)
(2) Ethanol from cellulous material?!
(3) Biodiesel from soybeans (with coproducts)
(4) Wind power from turbines.
(5) Solar electricity from PV cells..
(6) Solar heat for water heating.
What energy does it need?
(1) Engine fuel to run tractors, machinery.
(2) Electricity for pumping water for irrigation
(3) Nitrogen fertilizer production.
(4) Energy for ethanol production
I'm sure the issue will arise between purchasing external fuel at a cost $X, or investing $Y start up costs plus $Z proportional costs to produce energy locally. And on top of that, there's also going to be interest payments on debt borrowed for the start up costs.
In the end you'll likely see "local production" costs exceed external purchase costs, since purchased costs are based on unsustainable source of cheap fossil fuels. So if you're a farmer over your head in debt, do you get further in debt for the luxury of paying more for your energy? How can farm debt ever be repaid if you can't compete with other farmers who follow the cheap and easy path?
Current "market values" of farm products may not even pay for the costs of sustainably producing them. That is perhaps your self-sustaining farm might end up spending $50,000 on debt interest and repayment, and your entire crop might only be worth $30,000 at market values. According to economy theory your farm is "inefficient" and deserves to fail.
I expect our whole economy is full of such examples, and you can't blame the farmers for taking the "bottom line" decisions against renewable energy.
Of course if the oil market finally fails us, someday we're going to have to pay the real costs. I can see "fossil fuels" as a one time resource that invested wisely might promote a lower energy future. At least in regards to paying down debt, it seems an acceptable trade off. Life is about incremental improvements, and given a long term perspective times of prosperity can be considered times for investing in the future, in ways that will promise more security to manage the weaker years.
It's true for all of us - how much do we invest now when we have abundance to cover the weaker years?
I remember reading that men's brains are more lateralized, and this allows both more geniuses as well as more mentally deficit men. Women's brains apparently have more "redundancy" which is important in a dangerous world, and they can recover better from head injury and live longer as well.
It seems like modern society's focus on specialization is like that. We build a house of cards, each level built on the last, higher and higher, ever increasing our ability to exploit the resources around us. This "male" perspective leads to short term power and wealth, but fails to plan for the long term demands upon us.
Redundancy protects long term survival at the cost of short term wealth and efficiency. Another way to see redundancy is cooperation. It means sharing costs to keep a healthy system that can sustain "illness" and failure of components.
I imagine the future, if we are wise will be about new cooperatives between producers and consumers that benefit both - guaranteeing stable markets for producers, even at somewhat higher short tern costs to consumers. Globals will call this "protectionism", and perhaps it is when implemented purely from the top-down, but if it is implemented by cooperative decision, how can it be bad?
Actual forms are not yet clear, but the direction seems unavoidable. Sooner or later the big systems will fail us, and we'd better hope cooperation and redundancy can take up the slack.
posted by Ares Olympus at 7:45 PM
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