The Upside of Down
Fun article at:
http://canada.theoildrum.com/node/2155 The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization
http://www.homerdixon.com/
The question of complexity and what sustains it and what breaks it is fasinating to wonder about. According to my small-world mind, the current success of humanity is incomprehensible, the vast networks of institutions and infrastructure that makes our consumption possible. I can "reduce" my incomprehension on the idea that the availability of energy drives it all, however much our cleverness makes it possible.
It is curious to imagine how the pyramid of consumption can be flattened to include the developing world. I access the judgments that bottleneck resources WILL not only put a damper on those ambitions, but on our own as well.
I also accept the simplifying vision that our pyramid scheme is maintained through assumption of continued growth, and that all our economic models can not handle sustained periods of drawback.
It is curious to imagine how anyone can willingly play the game, knowing the futile result, knowing the more you have the more you'll lose. From the outside it is insanity, but I can try to see my own participation. I'm drawn by success, drawn by vision of ever advancing of human knowledge (and power there derived).
Well, back to the book I've not read, but nice review at link above.
I'm attracted to ideas that put our growth in context of a wider cycle. Growth feeds on itself, and success creates success, until the neglected costs slowly begin to accumulate and lower the returns. Complexity responds to new challenges by new complexity, tightening the system, squeezing out the inefficiencies, and optimizing the system to extract more from less. Necessity is the mother of invention, and we're creating necessities much more quickly than we can hope to solve them. At some point a series of bottlebnecks must come that can not be solved, and the system begins to disintegrate. The massive support systems declines, and smaller ones must arise to plug the local holes, if there's time.
The stock market is a good example of a powerful system that can't clearly deal with cascading failure. When there's success (bull market), everyone jumps in and succeeds. When there's too many people too far over their heads, they'll retreat what wealth they can to protect themselves and in the process destroy the good and the bad.
I'm not a risk-taker. What wealth do I have I'm willing to lose? It is astounding to me that people are lead to believe "investing in stock" is a means towards retirement. I mean it can be under good times, but for me I figure in good times, those knowledgeable will make more money off my investments than me, and under bad times, I'm going to be the one losing out. Power is not equal, and as much as the lottery is a fool's game, so to me is dumb investors who trust their money to others. And most of all I dislike the fact that innumerable "good ideas" go nowhere today because they don't have promised returns.
Investing for retirement purely based on expected returns is a corruption to me, a corruption of the stewartship of wealth. Sure, an investor CAN be smarter, but in a world of specialization, the bottom line is profits, and experts will play the game for us, and even when we win, we lose, because our path is further from facing the demands of the future. We may have more $s, but their value can disappear faster than anyone will admit.
Finally to the title, I'm sure there is an upside to down, but I'm not sure if we'll see it on the way down. I've long thought that if everyone thought like me, the economy would callapse quick, not just because I'm often stupid and don't always take the free rides offered, but because I must believe in a system of limits, and would overprotect (like any good environmentalist) so the crash happens sooner than later.
It is funny, since I often agree environmentalists are CRAZY - seeing the downside in EVERYTHING, they allow more downersides to continue because they're harder to attack. Like attacking nuclear for electricity while allowing coal plants, or complaining wind turbines kill burns while neglecting the mercury pollution from coal.
Well, I wish I had something good to end with, but I'll have to surrender as usual.
http://canada.theoildrum.com/node/2155 The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization
http://www.homerdixon.com/
The question of complexity and what sustains it and what breaks it is fasinating to wonder about. According to my small-world mind, the current success of humanity is incomprehensible, the vast networks of institutions and infrastructure that makes our consumption possible. I can "reduce" my incomprehension on the idea that the availability of energy drives it all, however much our cleverness makes it possible.
It is curious to imagine how the pyramid of consumption can be flattened to include the developing world. I access the judgments that bottleneck resources WILL not only put a damper on those ambitions, but on our own as well.
I also accept the simplifying vision that our pyramid scheme is maintained through assumption of continued growth, and that all our economic models can not handle sustained periods of drawback.
It is curious to imagine how anyone can willingly play the game, knowing the futile result, knowing the more you have the more you'll lose. From the outside it is insanity, but I can try to see my own participation. I'm drawn by success, drawn by vision of ever advancing of human knowledge (and power there derived).
Well, back to the book I've not read, but nice review at link above.
I'm attracted to ideas that put our growth in context of a wider cycle. Growth feeds on itself, and success creates success, until the neglected costs slowly begin to accumulate and lower the returns. Complexity responds to new challenges by new complexity, tightening the system, squeezing out the inefficiencies, and optimizing the system to extract more from less. Necessity is the mother of invention, and we're creating necessities much more quickly than we can hope to solve them. At some point a series of bottlebnecks must come that can not be solved, and the system begins to disintegrate. The massive support systems declines, and smaller ones must arise to plug the local holes, if there's time.
The stock market is a good example of a powerful system that can't clearly deal with cascading failure. When there's success (bull market), everyone jumps in and succeeds. When there's too many people too far over their heads, they'll retreat what wealth they can to protect themselves and in the process destroy the good and the bad.
I'm not a risk-taker. What wealth do I have I'm willing to lose? It is astounding to me that people are lead to believe "investing in stock" is a means towards retirement. I mean it can be under good times, but for me I figure in good times, those knowledgeable will make more money off my investments than me, and under bad times, I'm going to be the one losing out. Power is not equal, and as much as the lottery is a fool's game, so to me is dumb investors who trust their money to others. And most of all I dislike the fact that innumerable "good ideas" go nowhere today because they don't have promised returns.
Investing for retirement purely based on expected returns is a corruption to me, a corruption of the stewartship of wealth. Sure, an investor CAN be smarter, but in a world of specialization, the bottom line is profits, and experts will play the game for us, and even when we win, we lose, because our path is further from facing the demands of the future. We may have more $s, but their value can disappear faster than anyone will admit.
Finally to the title, I'm sure there is an upside to down, but I'm not sure if we'll see it on the way down. I've long thought that if everyone thought like me, the economy would callapse quick, not just because I'm often stupid and don't always take the free rides offered, but because I must believe in a system of limits, and would overprotect (like any good environmentalist) so the crash happens sooner than later.
It is funny, since I often agree environmentalists are CRAZY - seeing the downside in EVERYTHING, they allow more downersides to continue because they're harder to attack. Like attacking nuclear for electricity while allowing coal plants, or complaining wind turbines kill burns while neglecting the mercury pollution from coal.
Well, I wish I had something good to end with, but I'll have to surrender as usual.
posted by Ares Olympus at 3:46 PM
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