Yes-men to their last breath
A great summary article on peak oil from the industry's perspective:
http://www.spe.org/spe/jpt/jsp/jptmonthlysection/0,2440,1104_1585_0_6547035,00.html
How Do We Get There From Here? Global Energy Transitions Planning
I much appreciate the candid admissions in the article absent from most public positions from the industry. Peak oil WILL come in practice when supply fails to keep up with demand. (Really more of an inflection point, transitioning from a demand limited economics to supply limited, even if actual production can still inch upwards under heroic efforts.)
It would be interesting if the engineers could actually step back and admit - the day of reckoning is sooner than we'd all like - within the decade world oil production will fail to meet demand. The oil will be there, but not for all, but only for those with the means to pay for it, or take it. The economy that lifts all boats will change into something different, and we'd all better be prepared for it.
I suppose it is up to the economists to offer their assessments of the consequences of peak oil. It is funny how easily the economists just accept prices will lead to new supply. What's the story if things don't go optimally - if Civil war in the middle east sends oil prices to $300/bbl? Sure maybe it's a long way off, but maybe in two weeks. How do you prepare for such bottlenecks?
Back to the engineers, maybe it's just a matter of technical problems requiring a myopic focus, and past success says the end-game is yet long off. I just continue to wish some sort of "warning" could be issued from the oil companies that they can offer no promises for future production.
Richard Heinberg, not at all a geologist or engineer, still can point out the astounding failures of optimism to pan out:
http://www.energybulletin.net/27103.html
The biggest question for all of us is when do we start to prepare? The selfish question becomes "How long can we exploit easy-street while protecting our future when it dries up?" Or like going to an auction, we can ask "How much is oil worth to us?" $100/bbl ? $250/bbl?
I think we're in a lot more trouble than a coming energy crisis (or liquid fuel crisis at least). In the short run I accept the economy has room to squeeze. Of course it'd have MORE room if people actually knew how to save some of their income and invest in ways that reduces future costs.
It's just rather sad how little planning there seems to be. I think engineers are smart capable people. I just wish a few more would admit the days are numbered, and encourage preparation, whether alternatives, conservation and powerdown, or whatever responses we can find.
http://www.spe.org/spe/jpt/jsp/jptmonthlysection/0,2440,1104_1585_0_6547035,00.html
How Do We Get There From Here? Global Energy Transitions Planning
I much appreciate the candid admissions in the article absent from most public positions from the industry. Peak oil WILL come in practice when supply fails to keep up with demand. (Really more of an inflection point, transitioning from a demand limited economics to supply limited, even if actual production can still inch upwards under heroic efforts.)
It would be interesting if the engineers could actually step back and admit - the day of reckoning is sooner than we'd all like - within the decade world oil production will fail to meet demand. The oil will be there, but not for all, but only for those with the means to pay for it, or take it. The economy that lifts all boats will change into something different, and we'd all better be prepared for it.
I suppose it is up to the economists to offer their assessments of the consequences of peak oil. It is funny how easily the economists just accept prices will lead to new supply. What's the story if things don't go optimally - if Civil war in the middle east sends oil prices to $300/bbl? Sure maybe it's a long way off, but maybe in two weeks. How do you prepare for such bottlenecks?
Back to the engineers, maybe it's just a matter of technical problems requiring a myopic focus, and past success says the end-game is yet long off. I just continue to wish some sort of "warning" could be issued from the oil companies that they can offer no promises for future production.
Richard Heinberg, not at all a geologist or engineer, still can point out the astounding failures of optimism to pan out:
http://www.energybulletin.net/27103.html
The biggest question for all of us is when do we start to prepare? The selfish question becomes "How long can we exploit easy-street while protecting our future when it dries up?" Or like going to an auction, we can ask "How much is oil worth to us?" $100/bbl ? $250/bbl?
I think we're in a lot more trouble than a coming energy crisis (or liquid fuel crisis at least). In the short run I accept the economy has room to squeeze. Of course it'd have MORE room if people actually knew how to save some of their income and invest in ways that reduces future costs.
It's just rather sad how little planning there seems to be. I think engineers are smart capable people. I just wish a few more would admit the days are numbered, and encourage preparation, whether alternatives, conservation and powerdown, or whatever responses we can find.
posted by Ares Olympus at 10:43 PM
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