Thursday, April 26, 2007

Lies

Reading about the military deception, claiming a heroic death for a soldier killed by friendly fire, it is at one level "expected", and even excusable - a "harmless white lie" to soften the pain of family and friends of the fallen.

If it was JUST a white lie in a pool of darkness and nothing to be done, I might say okay, let it go. Certainly I disagree that a single tragedy ought to be used as evidence to change course on a war in Iraq. But still you gotta wonder on the slippery slope of truth - how far will people go? And of course the entire invasion rested on hopeful assumptions that Saddam had WMD, while the actual reasons were very different.

I also think of the Iraqi broadcaster during the U.S. invasion, offering his nonreality propaganda for the Iraqi defenses and the deaths of the evil American invaders. It's just noise on the chaos of war, but still served an immediate purpose - to slow the enemy, keep the people in line, and make time for Saddam and friends to make their escape.

Other lies I can think of are about predictions - is inflation going up or down, oil prices, oil supplies? Governments can always manipulate statistics to spin themselves in a better light, spin people into false confidence that things are well while the risks are high. I can think of the Bush administration, projecting falsely high deficits, and then claiming progress when the actual deficits were a bit smaller.

And of course the market does it too, like Michael Lynch's lastest projection, that oil prices will gradually fall into the lower $50/bbl, and into the $40/bbl range next year, due to his
http://www.mmegi.bw/2007/April/Wednesday25/17.php

Well, maybe predictions are outside of the domain of lies - after all, you can always excuse errors on ignorance. But given this uncertainty, there's power - to claim to know they future, you can help create it.

And then there's the fear mongers on the other side, predicting the world is already at peak production, and heading into sharp decline in the next 12 years.
http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Archives/2007/20070424.html Ali Samsam Bakhtiari and Peak Oil

I suppose I'm just annoyed there, that perceptions can diverge so widely.

Of course we OUGHT to keep on course to reduce our dependency on oil, and so annoying that claims of short term surplus will discourage action.

And hidden behind honest predictions are lots of "facts" that may or may not be facts, and may be "white lies" or other lies of self interest, confusing and hiding our risks.

I'm not a pure minded person who thinks lies are never useful or helpful. I just know they're dangerous.

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