Denial and Fear for the Future
I read a cool new detailed survey for Americans on environment and energy.
http://www.yale.edu/envirocenter/environmentalpoll.htm
http://www.yale.edu/envirocenter/yaleenvironmentpollspring2005releasetopline.pdf
http://www.yale.edu/envirocenter/poll2key.prn.pdf
68% of Americans consider the dependence on foreign oil as "very serious", and 92% very or somewhat serious.
When asked for answers they most support:
93% to FORCE automakers to make more fuel efficient cars
90% support expanding solar power
88% support expanding wind power
86% support research into renewables
On the other side:
6% support charging people per mile driven
11% charging a pollution tax
15% support increased gasoline tax
This shows me a country in a state of denial - not to be blamed - since tough issues require good debate and good leaders to frame the issues as real choices.
For me the way is crystal clear. The price of energy must increase. It WILL increase regardless in the long term. The only question is whether we "help it along" or wait for OPEC to get even richer UNTIL a world crisis sends us into shortages no matter how much we're willing to pay.
It's good that 92% support higher gas milage cars, but:
1) Will they still buy them if gas prices go down again?
2) Will they accept the trade offs needed in size and power?
3) Will they buy the vehicles if they cost much more up front?
I don't see gas prices as high enough to control people's buying habits much.
Sure, someone with a 10mpg SUV now might buy a 15mpg Minivan next year IF prices rise to $3/gallon, but the reality is such conservation efforts are far insufficient to the needs ahead of us.
The immediate future (2015-2060) will NOT have such choices within reach of average Americans. I really believe it possible that the cars being purchased even this year might be the "first of the last class of american cars", at least cars that look anything similar.
I see a future where the average american "can't afford the fuel on an older car" and "can't afford the purchase price of a newer car". I see a future where a BRAVE and BOLD movement arises that teaches people to live without personal cars.
Well, I can't see well at all, and I only know my own choices. I am car-free myself. I have two roommates who both have cars, but I've only borrowed one once since March. I have a girlfriend with a car, and so I ride with her sometimes.
In the past I've considered "sharing a car", and done it with my sister from 1992-2000 until she got married. It mainly worked because I "let" her have 99% priority over it. I shared a previous car my girlfriend for almost a year, and again she got 90% usage, even if II could have asked for more.
Sharing a car in a single house is hard enough, and across a city is even harder. I mean in terms of "wasted miles and time" in transfering it for use. I mostly avoided the transfer driving at least by using a bike and commuting home to work to her place, but it does take time and require advanced planning often.
I'm am ideal person to share a car with since I need one minimally. So I can share with anyone and if we split costs, they'll always get a better deal. However, for example, my cousin roommate, she drives to work, works 6 days a week, and does weekend and evening errands so practically the only time her car is HOME is when she's asleep, which isn't particularly a good time for anything but grocery shopping perhaps!
If we were to share a car, we could consider things like I could drive her to work, and do my errands, and then pick her up from work. However she currrently works about 20 some miles from home, so that's already a 40 mile commute normally, and would waste another 40 miles to do the dropoff/pickup trick - not to mention the time wasted on the road.
Car sharing on any sort of regular basis requires ALL PARTICIPANTS to be capable of alternative transportation 75% of the time. If she could "ride the bus" just one day, that would free the car for me that day.
Anyway, the GOOD thing is america is SO WASTEFUL that we can cut back our transportation probably by 50% quickly if we had to. Since we consume 25% of the world's oil, and 40% of that on transportation, we could save 5% of the world's oil consumption quickly just on transportation alone.
Saudi Arabia pumps MAYBE 10mbbl/day on peak output. The U.S. uses 20mbbl/day, and say 8mbbl/day on transportation, and so we could save 4mbbl/day, 40% of Saudi output. Well, it shows at least "high prices" are our choice and we really could cause a short term oil glut NOW if americans really did take our consumption seriously.
I'm still voting for a $4/gallon gas tax increase, even if transitioned over 4 years. (Heck the MN Gov wants a $0.75/pack "fee" increase for cigarettes - locally produced, job-creating, largely sustainable crop. Oil has a lot more value that cigarettes, even ignoring the foreign dependency!)
http://www.yale.edu/envirocenter/environmentalpoll.htm
http://www.yale.edu/envirocenter/yaleenvironmentpollspring2005releasetopline.pdf
http://www.yale.edu/envirocenter/poll2key.prn.pdf
68% of Americans consider the dependence on foreign oil as "very serious", and 92% very or somewhat serious.
When asked for answers they most support:
93% to FORCE automakers to make more fuel efficient cars
90% support expanding solar power
88% support expanding wind power
86% support research into renewables
On the other side:
6% support charging people per mile driven
11% charging a pollution tax
15% support increased gasoline tax
This shows me a country in a state of denial - not to be blamed - since tough issues require good debate and good leaders to frame the issues as real choices.
For me the way is crystal clear. The price of energy must increase. It WILL increase regardless in the long term. The only question is whether we "help it along" or wait for OPEC to get even richer UNTIL a world crisis sends us into shortages no matter how much we're willing to pay.
It's good that 92% support higher gas milage cars, but:
1) Will they still buy them if gas prices go down again?
2) Will they accept the trade offs needed in size and power?
3) Will they buy the vehicles if they cost much more up front?
I don't see gas prices as high enough to control people's buying habits much.
Sure, someone with a 10mpg SUV now might buy a 15mpg Minivan next year IF prices rise to $3/gallon, but the reality is such conservation efforts are far insufficient to the needs ahead of us.
The immediate future (2015-2060) will NOT have such choices within reach of average Americans. I really believe it possible that the cars being purchased even this year might be the "first of the last class of american cars", at least cars that look anything similar.
I see a future where the average american "can't afford the fuel on an older car" and "can't afford the purchase price of a newer car". I see a future where a BRAVE and BOLD movement arises that teaches people to live without personal cars.
Well, I can't see well at all, and I only know my own choices. I am car-free myself. I have two roommates who both have cars, but I've only borrowed one once since March. I have a girlfriend with a car, and so I ride with her sometimes.
In the past I've considered "sharing a car", and done it with my sister from 1992-2000 until she got married. It mainly worked because I "let" her have 99% priority over it. I shared a previous car my girlfriend for almost a year, and again she got 90% usage, even if II could have asked for more.
Sharing a car in a single house is hard enough, and across a city is even harder. I mean in terms of "wasted miles and time" in transfering it for use. I mostly avoided the transfer driving at least by using a bike and commuting home to work to her place, but it does take time and require advanced planning often.
I'm am ideal person to share a car with since I need one minimally. So I can share with anyone and if we split costs, they'll always get a better deal. However, for example, my cousin roommate, she drives to work, works 6 days a week, and does weekend and evening errands so practically the only time her car is HOME is when she's asleep, which isn't particularly a good time for anything but grocery shopping perhaps!
If we were to share a car, we could consider things like I could drive her to work, and do my errands, and then pick her up from work. However she currrently works about 20 some miles from home, so that's already a 40 mile commute normally, and would waste another 40 miles to do the dropoff/pickup trick - not to mention the time wasted on the road.
Car sharing on any sort of regular basis requires ALL PARTICIPANTS to be capable of alternative transportation 75% of the time. If she could "ride the bus" just one day, that would free the car for me that day.
Anyway, the GOOD thing is america is SO WASTEFUL that we can cut back our transportation probably by 50% quickly if we had to. Since we consume 25% of the world's oil, and 40% of that on transportation, we could save 5% of the world's oil consumption quickly just on transportation alone.
Saudi Arabia pumps MAYBE 10mbbl/day on peak output. The U.S. uses 20mbbl/day, and say 8mbbl/day on transportation, and so we could save 4mbbl/day, 40% of Saudi output. Well, it shows at least "high prices" are our choice and we really could cause a short term oil glut NOW if americans really did take our consumption seriously.
I'm still voting for a $4/gallon gas tax increase, even if transitioned over 4 years. (Heck the MN Gov wants a $0.75/pack "fee" increase for cigarettes - locally produced, job-creating, largely sustainable crop. Oil has a lot more value that cigarettes, even ignoring the foreign dependency!)
posted by Ares Olympus at 12:25 AM
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