Sunday, September 11, 2005

Rising boats in declining energy?

Just a quick thought...

If you want to "measure" the costs of our continued failed energy policy, watch the bottom. Watch the economic measures for poverty.

In my pessimism I say individuals are screwed, and it's true. If you're in a place of dependency upon debt and deciding which overdue bills to pay each month, you main gain some sympathy as things continue to get harder, but don't expect government handouts to save you.

My message must by necessity start with "You're on your own" whether you're on the top or the bottom.

On the other side, I'm sure the government will have to respond to increased poverty and hardship in some way. I think it makes sense to start NOW to analyse the finances of america and project which failings are most dire under further costs, so we can respond now if possible.

I suppose there can be no policy in a free county that demands savings, demands reduction of debt, especially high interest debt.

Personally I'd judge credit cards as a convenience under times of abundance and a liability in times of increased hardship. Really credit cards are a subject worthy of a very long essay. Credit cards can be seen as a "financial grease" that keeps the economy humming. We hum through the "soft patches", but we also hum far too deeply into unavoidable recessions and surely make things worse because of it.

If I were an economist, I'd do a wide analysis of credit card access and usage.

If I were the government, I'd develop an analysis that determined cost/benefit to short term credit access and develop policy that directly or indirectly limited access to credit to degrees that their costs exceeded their benefits.

Perhaps an impossible question, but seems vital to me. What's the cost of 1% of the population accumulating unpayable debt? How about 5%? How about 20%?

It seems very tricky. You can have individuals who are honorable and who treat debt with due reserve and weight, and yet put themselves over their heads when job loss or medical bills knock them over the edge. ALL DEBT offers risk to those who sponsor it. In some ways I would say let the loaners be warned they'll lose more when things turn down. High interest rates themselves ought to convince people to beware.

A paternalistic government can just set limits on interest rates and that alone will destroy the market for risky loans, and the whole credit card market.

Overall I'm happier to call credit cards as necessary evil. I would tell people they are playing games with the devil when you play games with short term credit. It is hard for me to ultimately tell people they can't be fools with their money.

It is a funny reality where a family member is judged "too risky" for a family-sponsored loan, while they can find greed-oriented strangers willing to loan them money. It is a real mystery to me. Wealthy family members "invest" in distant stock markets. Poor family members "borrow" from distant loaners. It seems wrong. I know some of the dynamics - moral judgements of family outweigh the interest payments to strangers.

So much for quick...

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