An Inconvenient Truth
I saw Al Gore's movie "An Inconvenient Truth" tonight.
I tried to play a skeptic, but I admit over all it played solid, lots of varied evidence of "climate change", a better term than global warming, even if the general trends are up.
Let's set from my scribble notes in the dark:
1) 1957 his professor started measuring CO2 from weather balloons and surprised by the strong progressive upward trend. Al continued watching trends over the decades. He thought others would be astounded in Congress and disappointed.
2) CO2 has seasonal cycles, coming down in the northern hemisphere summer because there's more land mass and plants to take up the CO2.
3) Glacial ice core records measure CO2 back 650,000 years, and CO2 never over 280, except last 100 years, and 380 now and heading towards 500+ in the next 50 years. (He might be implying its all fossil fuel burning, although obviously reduced forests as well in releasing more CO2 and absorbing less)
4) 2004 record tornados in the U.S. 2005 Record hurricanes, vast majority of warmest years have been in the last 14.
5) Climate change means some areas wetter some drier. Africa south of Sahara most drier and droughts increasing. Lake Chad reduced greatly
6) Arctic icecap melting significantly since 1970, ice 40% thinner from submarine measurements. Ice reflects 90% light, and open water absorbs 90% light as heat, speeding melting.
7) Ocean currents warm Europe and sink when cool back to equator, transfering heat. Greenland ice melting might stop flow and send Europe into a freeze, like a 1000 year freeze after the last glacial period.
8) Anarctica and Greenland melting could raise sea level 20-80 feel. (He makes it sound fast, showing changing coastlines, but gives no timescale, and probably, from what I've read, many decades or even centuries.) He does suggest melting surface ice sinks to underside via cracks and can speed glacial flow rates towards the sea.
9) U.S. and China have massive reserves of coal which will add even more CO2 then so far.
10) Population pressures 2B to 6.5B now to 9B in 2050 will continue deforestation, dry rivers. He showed images of Aral inland sea almost dry.
11) He says 850 peer review articles in support of global warming, zero against. Media articles in contrast were 53% on skeptic side.
Overall his political positions were most powerful to me, like Bush administration having nonscientists weaken statements from scientific reports, and the like. And showing vehicle fuel efficiency standards by country was very illuminating, how far behind we are, and showed lowly California trying to rise somewhat, but the automobile makers are challenging even that in court.
The closing credits offered the standard little things we can all do individually to make a difference, and referenced website: http://www.climatecrisis.net/
My personal "fear" is that ALL acts of conservation are insufficient to the problem. That is that we are "past the point of no return." Well, Gore expresses that - going from denial directly to despair, without looking to action.
I'm in despair, even as I act as I can "when it is convenient" at least. I'll bike rather than drive a car, because I like to bike. I bought an efficient furnace because I have the money, and turn th thermostat down to 50F when I'm away and 65F when I'm home. I use the electric company "WindSource" program, paying a little more for electricity to encourage wind power to grow. I use flourescent lights, low flow shower heads. I can grow food in my own garden, and compost food and yard waste. I don't waste any food at all - reduce, reuse, recycle in that order. I have no children of my own. I'll invest more in heating/insulation efficiency, and maybe solar or wind power, as I get my mortgage paid down. I'm fortunate in so many ways, and I'm doing pretty much all I can alone. Maybe someday I'll have a "zero emission home"?
There were represenatives to the Sierra Club at the movie. I suggested a huge fossil fuel tax, like $10/gallon of gas, to curb consumption, and they weren't excited about it, somehow didn't think making people spend more would solve anything, and certainly I admit it is a regressive tax on the poor.
Gore's movie projected the next 50 years of expected CO2 GROWTH, and then contrasted with the application of many systems of reduction to "ramp" production down to the level of 1970.
It's nice to have goals, and perhaps his goals are realistic, and I believe they're worth trying, but I think to be fair Gore ought to face the hard truths himself and say UNDER MY WORLD VIEW (1) You will never fly in an airplane (2) You will not be driving 60mph to work each day (3) Over 50% of your income will be spent on food (4) Over 50% of the workforce will be back on the farm. etc etc etc....
Maybe Gore doesn't project all these "regressions" but I can't see any projection that discounts these as realistic. Either we "powerdown" our demands on the earth, or things will be that much worse.
And the WORST thing is however many "conscious souls" are out there to listen, there's yet the "bottom line" economy raising its ugly head. America is the greatest consumer of energy and greatest waster, and the greatest military spender.
His story of the "slowly boiling frog" is apparently a false analogy, but good point of diminishing returns. Already I think cars have reduced to the point many people are better without them, but how long will it take for people to decide this? Is it a "conspiracy" or "elitist" to suggest poor people shouldn't own cars?
We are approaching a world where the poor must step back from the promises made to them in the land of opportunity. Will they blindly step back, or will they fight back? Where is democracy when the wealthiest 1% own 50% of the wealth and are uneffected by costs of anything?
I don't want to be called a communistic, and I figure I can escape this by saying "I don't want power" and "I don't want to control power of other", but if I take that path, that means I'm surrendering the future of humanity to "power to those to take it".
I don't know what more I can do, Mr. Gore. Comments are welcome....
I tried to play a skeptic, but I admit over all it played solid, lots of varied evidence of "climate change", a better term than global warming, even if the general trends are up.
Let's set from my scribble notes in the dark:
1) 1957 his professor started measuring CO2 from weather balloons and surprised by the strong progressive upward trend. Al continued watching trends over the decades. He thought others would be astounded in Congress and disappointed.
2) CO2 has seasonal cycles, coming down in the northern hemisphere summer because there's more land mass and plants to take up the CO2.
3) Glacial ice core records measure CO2 back 650,000 years, and CO2 never over 280, except last 100 years, and 380 now and heading towards 500+ in the next 50 years. (He might be implying its all fossil fuel burning, although obviously reduced forests as well in releasing more CO2 and absorbing less)
4) 2004 record tornados in the U.S. 2005 Record hurricanes, vast majority of warmest years have been in the last 14.
5) Climate change means some areas wetter some drier. Africa south of Sahara most drier and droughts increasing. Lake Chad reduced greatly
6) Arctic icecap melting significantly since 1970, ice 40% thinner from submarine measurements. Ice reflects 90% light, and open water absorbs 90% light as heat, speeding melting.
7) Ocean currents warm Europe and sink when cool back to equator, transfering heat. Greenland ice melting might stop flow and send Europe into a freeze, like a 1000 year freeze after the last glacial period.
8) Anarctica and Greenland melting could raise sea level 20-80 feel. (He makes it sound fast, showing changing coastlines, but gives no timescale, and probably, from what I've read, many decades or even centuries.) He does suggest melting surface ice sinks to underside via cracks and can speed glacial flow rates towards the sea.
9) U.S. and China have massive reserves of coal which will add even more CO2 then so far.
10) Population pressures 2B to 6.5B now to 9B in 2050 will continue deforestation, dry rivers. He showed images of Aral inland sea almost dry.
11) He says 850 peer review articles in support of global warming, zero against. Media articles in contrast were 53% on skeptic side.
Overall his political positions were most powerful to me, like Bush administration having nonscientists weaken statements from scientific reports, and the like. And showing vehicle fuel efficiency standards by country was very illuminating, how far behind we are, and showed lowly California trying to rise somewhat, but the automobile makers are challenging even that in court.
The closing credits offered the standard little things we can all do individually to make a difference, and referenced website: http://www.climatecrisis.net/
My personal "fear" is that ALL acts of conservation are insufficient to the problem. That is that we are "past the point of no return." Well, Gore expresses that - going from denial directly to despair, without looking to action.
I'm in despair, even as I act as I can "when it is convenient" at least. I'll bike rather than drive a car, because I like to bike. I bought an efficient furnace because I have the money, and turn th thermostat down to 50F when I'm away and 65F when I'm home. I use the electric company "WindSource" program, paying a little more for electricity to encourage wind power to grow. I use flourescent lights, low flow shower heads. I can grow food in my own garden, and compost food and yard waste. I don't waste any food at all - reduce, reuse, recycle in that order. I have no children of my own. I'll invest more in heating/insulation efficiency, and maybe solar or wind power, as I get my mortgage paid down. I'm fortunate in so many ways, and I'm doing pretty much all I can alone. Maybe someday I'll have a "zero emission home"?
There were represenatives to the Sierra Club at the movie. I suggested a huge fossil fuel tax, like $10/gallon of gas, to curb consumption, and they weren't excited about it, somehow didn't think making people spend more would solve anything, and certainly I admit it is a regressive tax on the poor.
Gore's movie projected the next 50 years of expected CO2 GROWTH, and then contrasted with the application of many systems of reduction to "ramp" production down to the level of 1970.
It's nice to have goals, and perhaps his goals are realistic, and I believe they're worth trying, but I think to be fair Gore ought to face the hard truths himself and say UNDER MY WORLD VIEW (1) You will never fly in an airplane (2) You will not be driving 60mph to work each day (3) Over 50% of your income will be spent on food (4) Over 50% of the workforce will be back on the farm. etc etc etc....
Maybe Gore doesn't project all these "regressions" but I can't see any projection that discounts these as realistic. Either we "powerdown" our demands on the earth, or things will be that much worse.
And the WORST thing is however many "conscious souls" are out there to listen, there's yet the "bottom line" economy raising its ugly head. America is the greatest consumer of energy and greatest waster, and the greatest military spender.
His story of the "slowly boiling frog" is apparently a false analogy, but good point of diminishing returns. Already I think cars have reduced to the point many people are better without them, but how long will it take for people to decide this? Is it a "conspiracy" or "elitist" to suggest poor people shouldn't own cars?
We are approaching a world where the poor must step back from the promises made to them in the land of opportunity. Will they blindly step back, or will they fight back? Where is democracy when the wealthiest 1% own 50% of the wealth and are uneffected by costs of anything?
I don't want to be called a communistic, and I figure I can escape this by saying "I don't want power" and "I don't want to control power of other", but if I take that path, that means I'm surrendering the future of humanity to "power to those to take it".
I don't know what more I can do, Mr. Gore. Comments are welcome....
posted by Ares Olympus at 10:11 PM
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