Muddling towards renewables
I wish someday I could look towards the future with hope rather than dread. Perhaps such a day will happen in my lifetime? Certainly I think in my lifetime (or hopeful lifetime) resource constraints (compared to demands) will continue to drag down our projected futures, and this is good in the sense of necessity, but bad since past successes will mean energy will be devoted too long into diminishing returns to do thing as we've done them.
I get as impatient as anyone, and my impatience stands squaring on uncertainty - whether or not we can live anything like we do now in the future - and basically my grim conclusion is no, at least by American standards - seeing if the world's population used energy like we do, the world would be using sometimes like 5 times as much energy as now, and even if production rates could be scaled up so fast, reserves would be depleted so much sooner.
Just the thought that dirtier sources of energy - coal, tar sands, shale oils, will rise as the oil and natural gas sources decline, is disturbing. We're creating a world that will DEMAND ever dirtier fuels to be consumed. I see no renewables that can "scale up" to our demands, so we'll keep going down the fossil fuel chain as long as it'll carry us.
I'd like a future where the costs of renewables could better compete, but I can't well except the economics of subsidies. I'd much prefer simply taxing fossil fuels at a level that makes alternatives competitive, even ignoring magic calculations of "full environmental costs" or whatever.
It is interesting, lets stop all farm subsidies for ethanol production from corn. Let's triple the costs of natural gas, electricity, diesel fuel, etc. What's going to happen to the cost of producing ethanol? It's going to go way up, probably much higher than the cost of gasoline, even subsidized by animal feed coproducts.
If biofuels make sense, we're going to have to learn to make them without fossil fuels. Quite obvious expectation, but no so obvious answers. Some suggest we can use biomass to fuel ethanol production.
http://www.tcdailyplanet.net/node/3669
http://notexactlyrocketscience.wordpress.com/2007/02/04/opinion-how-biofuels-could-cut-carbon-emissions-produce-energy-and-restore-dead-land/
I remember in Minnesota 1994, NSP (now Xcel Energy) needed storage space for used nuclear power waste, and an agreement was made to develop wind power and biomass. Wind power came out as very cost effective, while biomass less so. Basically what I read was that the cost of harvesting and transporting the biomass made the resulting energy noncompetitive. The experiments were with fast growing poplar trees I remember.
Can we really create a biomass energy source to meet our current energy needs? I mean sustainably, and scalably? I wish to be positive, but just hearing about the failed tree biomass experiment, I expect not.
On the issue of "energy/acre", it is something I looked at before, and I was "shocked" to hear an acre of land could only produce something over 100 gallons of ethanol, even ignoring the small energy gain. I admit trees would seem an ideal fuel compared to grass - being dense and tall - how can grasses beat wood for energy density?
Well, I suppose I shouldn't judge so quickly. And even if biomass energy costs 10x more than other energy sources, perhaps there'll be a day when other sources will also cost as much, and we'll be using less energy by necessity. I still have to wonder - at least for electricity, wind power seems a great source for electricity. Using biomass PURELY for energy (burning) seems rather inefficient - solar panels over the same area ought to generate 10 times more electricity directly than can be stored in biomass.
I probably would be less impatient if I could be a part of the solution, rather than just another sheep. My personal solution to transportation is good - bicycle and bus - for 90% of my transport, but a hard sell, and I admit my "range" is cut. Transportation already seems so expensive - maybe for a single person, bus fare is cheap, but add 3 kids? And to know it is already greatly subsidized is discouraging. Hearing about the Northstar train
http://www.mn-getonboard.org/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northstar_Corridor
http://anokacountywatchdog.com/northstar_rail/northstar_menu.htm
So much money, and still subsidized travel. I don't much understand. I like my bike! :)
I get as impatient as anyone, and my impatience stands squaring on uncertainty - whether or not we can live anything like we do now in the future - and basically my grim conclusion is no, at least by American standards - seeing if the world's population used energy like we do, the world would be using sometimes like 5 times as much energy as now, and even if production rates could be scaled up so fast, reserves would be depleted so much sooner.
Just the thought that dirtier sources of energy - coal, tar sands, shale oils, will rise as the oil and natural gas sources decline, is disturbing. We're creating a world that will DEMAND ever dirtier fuels to be consumed. I see no renewables that can "scale up" to our demands, so we'll keep going down the fossil fuel chain as long as it'll carry us.
I'd like a future where the costs of renewables could better compete, but I can't well except the economics of subsidies. I'd much prefer simply taxing fossil fuels at a level that makes alternatives competitive, even ignoring magic calculations of "full environmental costs" or whatever.
It is interesting, lets stop all farm subsidies for ethanol production from corn. Let's triple the costs of natural gas, electricity, diesel fuel, etc. What's going to happen to the cost of producing ethanol? It's going to go way up, probably much higher than the cost of gasoline, even subsidized by animal feed coproducts.
If biofuels make sense, we're going to have to learn to make them without fossil fuels. Quite obvious expectation, but no so obvious answers. Some suggest we can use biomass to fuel ethanol production.
http://www.tcdailyplanet.net/node/3669
http://notexactlyrocketscience.wordpress.com/2007/02/04/opinion-how-biofuels-could-cut-carbon-emissions-produce-energy-and-restore-dead-land/
I remember in Minnesota 1994, NSP (now Xcel Energy) needed storage space for used nuclear power waste, and an agreement was made to develop wind power and biomass. Wind power came out as very cost effective, while biomass less so. Basically what I read was that the cost of harvesting and transporting the biomass made the resulting energy noncompetitive. The experiments were with fast growing poplar trees I remember.
Can we really create a biomass energy source to meet our current energy needs? I mean sustainably, and scalably? I wish to be positive, but just hearing about the failed tree biomass experiment, I expect not.
On the issue of "energy/acre", it is something I looked at before, and I was "shocked" to hear an acre of land could only produce something over 100 gallons of ethanol, even ignoring the small energy gain. I admit trees would seem an ideal fuel compared to grass - being dense and tall - how can grasses beat wood for energy density?
Well, I suppose I shouldn't judge so quickly. And even if biomass energy costs 10x more than other energy sources, perhaps there'll be a day when other sources will also cost as much, and we'll be using less energy by necessity. I still have to wonder - at least for electricity, wind power seems a great source for electricity. Using biomass PURELY for energy (burning) seems rather inefficient - solar panels over the same area ought to generate 10 times more electricity directly than can be stored in biomass.
I probably would be less impatient if I could be a part of the solution, rather than just another sheep. My personal solution to transportation is good - bicycle and bus - for 90% of my transport, but a hard sell, and I admit my "range" is cut. Transportation already seems so expensive - maybe for a single person, bus fare is cheap, but add 3 kids? And to know it is already greatly subsidized is discouraging. Hearing about the Northstar train
http://www.mn-getonboard.org/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northstar_Corridor
http://anokacountywatchdog.com/northstar_rail/northstar_menu.htm
So much money, and still subsidized travel. I don't much understand. I like my bike! :)
posted by Ares Olympus at 5:10 PM
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