Oil Storm
This Saturday I watched a cable-taped movie called "Oil Storm" fron FX network.
It offers a documentary-style fictional scenario of a hurricane in September 2005 hitting straight on into Louisianna's offshore oil production, sending a short term distruption to U.S. supplies. The president authorizes 1 mbbl/day of oil to be sold from the Strategic reserve, and also makes a deal with the Saudis to send us an extra 1-2mbbl/day as well. Then terrorists attack in Saudi Arabia and distrupt their production. We send in troups to help, but it just further inflames the situation. Then we get Russia to sell us oil and they agree, but midshipment, the Chinese out bid us and the ships divert. We eventually outbid the Chinese and get our shipments. However we over use some seaway in Texas and cause an accidental collision of a chemical and petroleum ship, closing the passage for months.
In the 6+ months this runs, gasoline prices rise to 3, 4, 6, and $8/gallon. Eventually things settle apparently, and the documentary has the chance to interview all the key participants and some ordinary people on how the events were made and affected them.
There was no clear mention about "peak oil". They did say in the opening that the U.S. consumes 25% of the world's oil.
I'm not aware that Russia really has large reserves available for export, but I guess with investment money, there is some oil there in the short term, even if nothing like the middle east.
I think the movie was as good as it could be done. I don't know how realistic the events might be, but at least overall they were immediate future and didn't require great assumptions about long term oil limits and how we might respond.
I accept that it is enough to offer the message that the U.S. is headed on a collision course with disaster with our ever expanding dependence upon foreign oil and our high demand.
I'd be interested in a story played on a longer time period, like jumping on key events every decade or so over the next 50 years to show how the world will react to oil shortages. However such predictions are dependent upon extrapolating data that is disputed. Do we have 1, 2, or 3 trillion barrels of oil left in the world? It makes a HUGE difference. I think the projections can still be made, just adjusting the years +/-15 years.
Maybe a Kunsler style "Long Emergency" story would be too depressing. Certainly history is VERY depressing to be viewed in the long term, when things are headed down hill anyway.
Myself, I accept raising Gasoline taxes now is our ONLY firm defense against higher prices later. We either ease our consumption now voluntarily, or later because we have to. If we can't get political will for raising taxes, than a world oil crisis is the next best thing to curb consumption and raise prices.
On the other hand, as long as people thing everything is political, not geological limits, a crisis will be endured, and if an indian summer returns of cheaper oil, people can easily think things have returned to "normal". A wake up call is only helpful if people really understand what it means.
This Fall seems as good a time as any for an "Oil storm". I don't look forward to it, except in an "I told you so" satisfaction. There's no predictibility however. We can play with possible futures, and unfortunately in the short term, $10/bbl oil is perhaps just as likely as $100/bbl oil. Creeping to $60/bbl is nice, but it might fall to $40/bbl just as easily with just a few percent changes in demand or supply.
Overall I accept it is just too nightmarish for anyone to accept. We need a decade of depression perhaps to seriously face our problems.
Funny tonight in Toastmasters, a speaker talked about Pessimists never accomplishing anything - implying to be an optimist is the source of all creation.
Maybe it's true. Certainly I'm not clearly better off for my pessimism, and I won't make nearly as much money as the person who sees a coming peak oil as their chance for wealth and power.
I think of bicycling. As a pessimist I'll take hard work now for a better life later. Maybe that's not pessimism. It is conservatism. I'd rather bike up hill now, knowing I can rest on the way down later. Going downhill, into a valley is harder. It means I can't enjoy what I have now, knowing harder times are ahead when I must climb back out of the depression.
I see modern culture in a freefall of cheap energy - destroying ancient energy sources, and modern balances of nature, for a few shits and giggles and aspirations of godhood. I'm as attracted to power as much as anyone, but how can I really enjoy something that can't last? I MEAN IF my actions now are the CAUSE of the predictable ending?
I know we "can't take it with you [after death]" so there are limits to saving, but I have a hard time knowing our actions now will make things harder for those who will follow?
Outrage is easy. Action is something else. I'm not willing to give up the game society offers. I mean for work, for modern communication and tools in computers. I can try to give up cars, but not always easy in Minnesota all year.
Either I'm part of the problem, or part of the solution? Is it so simple? At least for oil, I'm less a part of the problem than most, but perhaps 75% will say they're below average for consumption. Even a room full of conservationists can destroy the world if there's enough.
No more great thoughts. I'm not even a pawn in life, just a cog in a machine. I have to wait for the machine to crash, and then see where I land.
Perhaps I'm yet an optimist for not giving up on trying anything. I do appreciate what I have now, and I don't have illusions that the future will look like the past but better.
It offers a documentary-style fictional scenario of a hurricane in September 2005 hitting straight on into Louisianna's offshore oil production, sending a short term distruption to U.S. supplies. The president authorizes 1 mbbl/day of oil to be sold from the Strategic reserve, and also makes a deal with the Saudis to send us an extra 1-2mbbl/day as well. Then terrorists attack in Saudi Arabia and distrupt their production. We send in troups to help, but it just further inflames the situation. Then we get Russia to sell us oil and they agree, but midshipment, the Chinese out bid us and the ships divert. We eventually outbid the Chinese and get our shipments. However we over use some seaway in Texas and cause an accidental collision of a chemical and petroleum ship, closing the passage for months.
In the 6+ months this runs, gasoline prices rise to 3, 4, 6, and $8/gallon. Eventually things settle apparently, and the documentary has the chance to interview all the key participants and some ordinary people on how the events were made and affected them.
There was no clear mention about "peak oil". They did say in the opening that the U.S. consumes 25% of the world's oil.
I'm not aware that Russia really has large reserves available for export, but I guess with investment money, there is some oil there in the short term, even if nothing like the middle east.
I think the movie was as good as it could be done. I don't know how realistic the events might be, but at least overall they were immediate future and didn't require great assumptions about long term oil limits and how we might respond.
I accept that it is enough to offer the message that the U.S. is headed on a collision course with disaster with our ever expanding dependence upon foreign oil and our high demand.
I'd be interested in a story played on a longer time period, like jumping on key events every decade or so over the next 50 years to show how the world will react to oil shortages. However such predictions are dependent upon extrapolating data that is disputed. Do we have 1, 2, or 3 trillion barrels of oil left in the world? It makes a HUGE difference. I think the projections can still be made, just adjusting the years +/-15 years.
Maybe a Kunsler style "Long Emergency" story would be too depressing. Certainly history is VERY depressing to be viewed in the long term, when things are headed down hill anyway.
Myself, I accept raising Gasoline taxes now is our ONLY firm defense against higher prices later. We either ease our consumption now voluntarily, or later because we have to. If we can't get political will for raising taxes, than a world oil crisis is the next best thing to curb consumption and raise prices.
On the other hand, as long as people thing everything is political, not geological limits, a crisis will be endured, and if an indian summer returns of cheaper oil, people can easily think things have returned to "normal". A wake up call is only helpful if people really understand what it means.
This Fall seems as good a time as any for an "Oil storm". I don't look forward to it, except in an "I told you so" satisfaction. There's no predictibility however. We can play with possible futures, and unfortunately in the short term, $10/bbl oil is perhaps just as likely as $100/bbl oil. Creeping to $60/bbl is nice, but it might fall to $40/bbl just as easily with just a few percent changes in demand or supply.
Overall I accept it is just too nightmarish for anyone to accept. We need a decade of depression perhaps to seriously face our problems.
Funny tonight in Toastmasters, a speaker talked about Pessimists never accomplishing anything - implying to be an optimist is the source of all creation.
Maybe it's true. Certainly I'm not clearly better off for my pessimism, and I won't make nearly as much money as the person who sees a coming peak oil as their chance for wealth and power.
I think of bicycling. As a pessimist I'll take hard work now for a better life later. Maybe that's not pessimism. It is conservatism. I'd rather bike up hill now, knowing I can rest on the way down later. Going downhill, into a valley is harder. It means I can't enjoy what I have now, knowing harder times are ahead when I must climb back out of the depression.
I see modern culture in a freefall of cheap energy - destroying ancient energy sources, and modern balances of nature, for a few shits and giggles and aspirations of godhood. I'm as attracted to power as much as anyone, but how can I really enjoy something that can't last? I MEAN IF my actions now are the CAUSE of the predictable ending?
I know we "can't take it with you [after death]" so there are limits to saving, but I have a hard time knowing our actions now will make things harder for those who will follow?
Outrage is easy. Action is something else. I'm not willing to give up the game society offers. I mean for work, for modern communication and tools in computers. I can try to give up cars, but not always easy in Minnesota all year.
Either I'm part of the problem, or part of the solution? Is it so simple? At least for oil, I'm less a part of the problem than most, but perhaps 75% will say they're below average for consumption. Even a room full of conservationists can destroy the world if there's enough.
No more great thoughts. I'm not even a pawn in life, just a cog in a machine. I have to wait for the machine to crash, and then see where I land.
Perhaps I'm yet an optimist for not giving up on trying anything. I do appreciate what I have now, and I don't have illusions that the future will look like the past but better.
posted by Ares Olympus at 9:42 PM
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