The energy bubble
Just depressing to read apparently reasoned and honest assessment of oil assets of Mexico - One of the top-3 producers for U.S. imports:
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/miami/23934.html
Mexico claims to have enough oil reserves for somewhere between 9 to 28 years - 2016 to 2035. And when will their oil production enter terminal decline? No suggestion.
I read part of a big thesis paper yesterday, on history of money and economic theory:
E-Diss1237_Dis_Money_upside_down.pdf
Fairly readable, although skimmed much. Most interesting simple idea I took out is claim that there's three uses for debt: (1) Investment (2) Consumption (3) Speculation.
They may not be mutually exclusive, but still seem informative. I wondered in the past "What's a reasonable level of production of a finite energy resource?", first answer is "none", and second answer is "less".
Well, seeing a resource as the opposite of debt. That is WE are "borrowing" from the earth, taking a resource that we won't have again. What uses can such a resource be?
An optimist will say it allow humanity to expand and find newer and better resources to exploit. Like an inheritence to pay for college, there can be good uses for one time money.
But it is hard to have faith. I see more that power corrupts, and whatever sensibilitity humanity had before cheap energy, we've long lost. However much scientific discovery expands our horizons, it offers no security against collapse, and population increases have already closed the door to any clear promised land for everyone. the future will not have the American dream for the rest of the world, at least not within secure measures of knowledge.
Just like the Fed created a "credit bubble", cheap borrowing, to invigorate the economy, the "energy bubble" has done the same over a longer time period, so we have no idea any more what it means to live sustainably, without resources we'll one day have to do without.
Depressed as usual, no solutions as usual, even with spring bonus and dividend checks today for a good 2006 year. What shall I invest in? I'm thinking my mortgage. Fool yes, in an abstract world. Paying down debt is the conservative bet. Afterall I can't invest with it, but if I'm lucky and someday have REAL money without selling my house, maybe I'll reconsider what's my next priority.
Even if the optimists are right and the world's energy use is still increasing in 2020, where does the game end? When is it "time" to invest in renewables?
I ought to stop complaining and put my time into renewables, but for now I just am glad to get a paycheck like everyone else. I still wonder about investments - and believe in measuring "returns" .... paying $20,000 for Solar EV might be worth it, but maybe in the bigger picture investing in a wind farm is better, at least living in the city.
It is funny. Even 100 million environmentalists working by ourselves can make poor economic choices. I mean from "penny wise, pound foolish" to just plain myopic vision of where resources will be most needed in the near future. If I try "self-defense", I might have the only energy-self sufficient home in the neighborhood, but what does it cost in choices lost in a collective investment?
I think everyone ought to realize we're playing a game of musical chairs, and even if the chairs are yet expanding with new players, a day will come when the chairs will stare disappearing. I think we all must look to other games sooner or later, and make more room for others with less flexibility to change immediately.
I'm proud to have gone now two years without a car, although I still consider my options on sharing a car. Many challenges for all of us, whatever our resources and affluence.
Scary to imagine being a teacher, can't share the good news like a good evangelical. I'm a brimstone and hellfire preacher, and don't like to tell people we're fucked. Ignorance is bliss, so I guess I'll follow the natural course:
Let those hear who will, and follow who can....
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/miami/23934.html
Mexico claims to have enough oil reserves for somewhere between 9 to 28 years - 2016 to 2035. And when will their oil production enter terminal decline? No suggestion.
I read part of a big thesis paper yesterday, on history of money and economic theory:
E-Diss1237_Dis_Money_upside_down.pdf
Fairly readable, although skimmed much. Most interesting simple idea I took out is claim that there's three uses for debt: (1) Investment (2) Consumption (3) Speculation.
They may not be mutually exclusive, but still seem informative. I wondered in the past "What's a reasonable level of production of a finite energy resource?", first answer is "none", and second answer is "less".
Well, seeing a resource as the opposite of debt. That is WE are "borrowing" from the earth, taking a resource that we won't have again. What uses can such a resource be?
An optimist will say it allow humanity to expand and find newer and better resources to exploit. Like an inheritence to pay for college, there can be good uses for one time money.
But it is hard to have faith. I see more that power corrupts, and whatever sensibilitity humanity had before cheap energy, we've long lost. However much scientific discovery expands our horizons, it offers no security against collapse, and population increases have already closed the door to any clear promised land for everyone. the future will not have the American dream for the rest of the world, at least not within secure measures of knowledge.
Just like the Fed created a "credit bubble", cheap borrowing, to invigorate the economy, the "energy bubble" has done the same over a longer time period, so we have no idea any more what it means to live sustainably, without resources we'll one day have to do without.
Depressed as usual, no solutions as usual, even with spring bonus and dividend checks today for a good 2006 year. What shall I invest in? I'm thinking my mortgage. Fool yes, in an abstract world. Paying down debt is the conservative bet. Afterall I can't invest with it, but if I'm lucky and someday have REAL money without selling my house, maybe I'll reconsider what's my next priority.
Even if the optimists are right and the world's energy use is still increasing in 2020, where does the game end? When is it "time" to invest in renewables?
I ought to stop complaining and put my time into renewables, but for now I just am glad to get a paycheck like everyone else. I still wonder about investments - and believe in measuring "returns" .... paying $20,000 for Solar EV might be worth it, but maybe in the bigger picture investing in a wind farm is better, at least living in the city.
It is funny. Even 100 million environmentalists working by ourselves can make poor economic choices. I mean from "penny wise, pound foolish" to just plain myopic vision of where resources will be most needed in the near future. If I try "self-defense", I might have the only energy-self sufficient home in the neighborhood, but what does it cost in choices lost in a collective investment?
I think everyone ought to realize we're playing a game of musical chairs, and even if the chairs are yet expanding with new players, a day will come when the chairs will stare disappearing. I think we all must look to other games sooner or later, and make more room for others with less flexibility to change immediately.
I'm proud to have gone now two years without a car, although I still consider my options on sharing a car. Many challenges for all of us, whatever our resources and affluence.
Scary to imagine being a teacher, can't share the good news like a good evangelical. I'm a brimstone and hellfire preacher, and don't like to tell people we're fucked. Ignorance is bliss, so I guess I'll follow the natural course:
Let those hear who will, and follow who can....
posted by Ares Olympus at 8:31 PM
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