The Imminent Fall of the House of Trump?
I have no idea what's going to happen in the coming months, but it becomes increasingly hard to imagine Donald Trump's presidency will last the year. Impeachment by his own party seems unlikely, and apparently it can take many months. And the vice president invoking the 25th amendment, section 4, is the fastest escape route, but "unable" is a tricky word seeming to mean temporary incapacity that doesn't clearly deal with things like dementia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_4:_Vice_Presidential.E2.80.93Cabinet_declaration
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Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
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My best guess is that Trump will resign before the end of 2018, same as Nixon, whatever the exact sequence of events. And Trump may find this to his best satisfaction, and for all we know it was his plan from the beginning, or since he unexpectedly won, to cause the biggest splash he can, and leave when it gets too tedious. And picking stable conservative Mike Pence VP surely helped republicans vote for Trump, and helped Trump feel sure he can back out at any time and things will be okay. And Trump's refusal to show his tax returns, and his refusal to sell off his assets like every other president also suggests his lack of seriousness at sticking with it.
It would be cool to offer a prediction when he'd resign, and perhaps a range is more reasonable. Things look bad enough I can imagine a resignation as early as July, and that would bring maximum relief to Trump himself, and the world. And he could go back to being a lovable bigmouth billionaire. But the transition isn't necessarily simple, or whenever someone decides to resign from a job before they do it, that frees them to maximize their impact in the final period on the job. Picking a Supreme Court justice probably will be his largest impact, even if the list he selected from was a conservative wish list. But Trump still imagines himself as a populist, and so surely Trump will be attracted to something that will make him "loved" by the people, something that sticks a middle finger at the "elite" and that would allow Trump to go out a hero, to the 40% who want him to be a hero. I'm not ready to guess what that might be yet, and I'm sure Trump doesn't know either, so it may be a "last man in the room" suggestion that wins the day.
On recent news, the most astounding interview was with Benjamin Wittes, friend of James Comey, and basically confirming that Comey took "memos" after every meeting with Trump, and felt a strong need to push back the White House from trying to influence the FBI's investigations. And so the most damning evidence so far is (1) Trump asked for loyalty from Comey (2) Comey declined loyalty (3) Trump fired Comey.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-james-comey-told-me-about-donald-trump
So Trump can be forgiven for a bad decision in asking for something inappropriate, but the consequence of that request means his motives are questionable for firing. It's categorically no different than a boss propositioning a secretary and firing her afterwards. Even if she deserved to be fired, for doing a bad job, there's simply no way to separate motives here, no way to prove it was job performance that was a the deciding factor.
And if Trump really asked Comey to let Flynn off the hook from investigations, that is apparently legally criminal "obstruction of justice" and Trump also when asked if he had done this, Trump denied it saying "no, no, next question."
Yet, before the "memos" were announced, Trump tweeted a fear about being recorded. So threat or not, that's easily a sign of a guilty conscience, someone who doesn't want to be caught, even if Trump seems so stupid, he does change his story when he decides it can't hurt him.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/863007411132649473
5:26 AM - 12 May 2017 "James Comey better hope that there are no "tapes" of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!"
And the case of Trump sharing confidence intelligence reports with the Russians shows more trouble. First Trump denies it, then when he finds out he has a legal right to do it, he defends it. But just because something is legal doesn't make it smart. And the fact his own staff are leaking such things shows there is minimal loyalty within the white house, and the more Trump tries to clamp down on leakers, the more he'll be surrounded by sycophants, the more delusional he will get, and it will become even more obvious when he tweets and talks.
Bret Stephens offers a damning picture here:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/17/opinion/flight-93-election-trump-conservatives.html
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But the reality of the presidency is that it tends to reflect and magnify the inner truth of the officeholder. The job requires — and exposes — that most conservative of concepts: character. And if we’ve learned anything about Trump, it’s that his character isn’t just bad. It’s irrepressible.
Hence the past 10 days of our national life. Firing Jim Comey. Threatening Comey. Lying about the reasons for firing Comey. Admitting to the reasons for firing Comey. Blabbing secrets to Sergey Lavrov. Denying that secrets were blabbed. Then blabbing about blabbing to Lavrov.
No staff shake-up would have prevented any of this from happening. It would have descended on a hapless White House staff like a superheated pyroclastic flow from a presidential Pinatubo. And it will continue to descend, week after grim week, until Trump leaves or is forced from office.
That is the Trump reality. A man with a deformed personality and a defective intellect runs a dysfunctional administration — a fact finally visible even to its most ardent admirers.
----
I do believe when Trump resigns everyone will say it is best, but even a day before that moment, half of republicans will still play their roles and blind themselves to the truth of their party's fall.
There is no more republican party. It is nothing more than a self-interest machine echoing Trump's "Make American great again" while draining her dry.
The Democrats may not be much better, but they are better in at least one respect. They've never endorsed such buffoonish president as Trump.
Meanwhile all conservatives have left is to keep rehashing the real and imagined crimes of Democrats, to avoid their own conscience.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_4:_Vice_Presidential.E2.80.93Cabinet_declaration
---
Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
----
My best guess is that Trump will resign before the end of 2018, same as Nixon, whatever the exact sequence of events. And Trump may find this to his best satisfaction, and for all we know it was his plan from the beginning, or since he unexpectedly won, to cause the biggest splash he can, and leave when it gets too tedious. And picking stable conservative Mike Pence VP surely helped republicans vote for Trump, and helped Trump feel sure he can back out at any time and things will be okay. And Trump's refusal to show his tax returns, and his refusal to sell off his assets like every other president also suggests his lack of seriousness at sticking with it.
It would be cool to offer a prediction when he'd resign, and perhaps a range is more reasonable. Things look bad enough I can imagine a resignation as early as July, and that would bring maximum relief to Trump himself, and the world. And he could go back to being a lovable bigmouth billionaire. But the transition isn't necessarily simple, or whenever someone decides to resign from a job before they do it, that frees them to maximize their impact in the final period on the job. Picking a Supreme Court justice probably will be his largest impact, even if the list he selected from was a conservative wish list. But Trump still imagines himself as a populist, and so surely Trump will be attracted to something that will make him "loved" by the people, something that sticks a middle finger at the "elite" and that would allow Trump to go out a hero, to the 40% who want him to be a hero. I'm not ready to guess what that might be yet, and I'm sure Trump doesn't know either, so it may be a "last man in the room" suggestion that wins the day.
On recent news, the most astounding interview was with Benjamin Wittes, friend of James Comey, and basically confirming that Comey took "memos" after every meeting with Trump, and felt a strong need to push back the White House from trying to influence the FBI's investigations. And so the most damning evidence so far is (1) Trump asked for loyalty from Comey (2) Comey declined loyalty (3) Trump fired Comey.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-james-comey-told-me-about-donald-trump
So Trump can be forgiven for a bad decision in asking for something inappropriate, but the consequence of that request means his motives are questionable for firing. It's categorically no different than a boss propositioning a secretary and firing her afterwards. Even if she deserved to be fired, for doing a bad job, there's simply no way to separate motives here, no way to prove it was job performance that was a the deciding factor.
And if Trump really asked Comey to let Flynn off the hook from investigations, that is apparently legally criminal "obstruction of justice" and Trump also when asked if he had done this, Trump denied it saying "no, no, next question."
Yet, before the "memos" were announced, Trump tweeted a fear about being recorded. So threat or not, that's easily a sign of a guilty conscience, someone who doesn't want to be caught, even if Trump seems so stupid, he does change his story when he decides it can't hurt him.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/863007411132649473
5:26 AM - 12 May 2017 "James Comey better hope that there are no "tapes" of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!"
And the case of Trump sharing confidence intelligence reports with the Russians shows more trouble. First Trump denies it, then when he finds out he has a legal right to do it, he defends it. But just because something is legal doesn't make it smart. And the fact his own staff are leaking such things shows there is minimal loyalty within the white house, and the more Trump tries to clamp down on leakers, the more he'll be surrounded by sycophants, the more delusional he will get, and it will become even more obvious when he tweets and talks.
Bret Stephens offers a damning picture here:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/17/opinion/flight-93-election-trump-conservatives.html
----
But the reality of the presidency is that it tends to reflect and magnify the inner truth of the officeholder. The job requires — and exposes — that most conservative of concepts: character. And if we’ve learned anything about Trump, it’s that his character isn’t just bad. It’s irrepressible.
Hence the past 10 days of our national life. Firing Jim Comey. Threatening Comey. Lying about the reasons for firing Comey. Admitting to the reasons for firing Comey. Blabbing secrets to Sergey Lavrov. Denying that secrets were blabbed. Then blabbing about blabbing to Lavrov.
No staff shake-up would have prevented any of this from happening. It would have descended on a hapless White House staff like a superheated pyroclastic flow from a presidential Pinatubo. And it will continue to descend, week after grim week, until Trump leaves or is forced from office.
That is the Trump reality. A man with a deformed personality and a defective intellect runs a dysfunctional administration — a fact finally visible even to its most ardent admirers.
----
I do believe when Trump resigns everyone will say it is best, but even a day before that moment, half of republicans will still play their roles and blind themselves to the truth of their party's fall.
There is no more republican party. It is nothing more than a self-interest machine echoing Trump's "Make American great again" while draining her dry.
The Democrats may not be much better, but they are better in at least one respect. They've never endorsed such buffoonish president as Trump.
Meanwhile all conservatives have left is to keep rehashing the real and imagined crimes of Democrats, to avoid their own conscience.
posted by Ares Olympus at 12:50 PM
1 comments
