Wednesday, May 31, 2006

The abundance illusion

I don't spend much time in grocery stores, or any sort of store, usually seem to have more fun in the scavenger life than spending money, and given the amount of waste around me, it works pretty well. Seriously, with my garden and food coop, I average spending less than $20/month at a supermarket myself.

Today I happened upon a grocery store with a friend, and contrasted my secure vision as a doomer versus her secure vision that "people with greater means than her will get problems of energy and production solved purely on their own profit motives."

Well, looking at the almost "sickening" abundance around in a modern supermarket, it seems clear how easily people can be deceived into seeing abundance. Common sense suggests that if the economy was going in the wrong direction we'd either see (1) Food prices much greater, or (2) Food abundance greatly diminished.

Not to say that many people are not feeling pinched by food prices already, only that Americans spend a lot less proportionally of their income on food than many other poorer countries.
Anyway, at least in my vision I saw what SIGN she would need to get worried.

I project this onto her, but accept it is my own test as well, the point where I can stop dividing my life into halves of (what I see, and what I know), and I'll know what I know because I finally can see. I WANT confirmation of my fears, even as I would rather not have them come to pass.

Well, just a final thought, SOMEDAY access to food in the U.S. WILL be a point of manipulation just like gasoline is becoming now.

The "Free Fall Market" will someday come to claim its dues upon us, and food will either be unaffordable or unavailable.

I'm curious if the government will have any more influence over food prices as it has over fuel prices.

Food prices are kept artificially low because of farm subsidies. I suppose in turn, we might now offer "Fuel subsidies" and some countries do this which can only speed up their day of destiny, and our "low fuel taxes" look positively wise in comparison.

It's all well and good to think that food production (and ethanol as well) are "renewable" products, but as long as we use nonrenewable energy to produce them, our economy is built on a big fat lie.

I suppose just like the poor now have "food stamps", we might offset a higher fuel tax with "fuel stamps". It's a subsidy, but at least it is directed where it is needed.

Some anti-population militants suggest feeding the poor only fattens them up to have more unsustainable kids. I can play such thought games as well, except recognizing that hungry people don't often die without a fight, and law and order is not maintainable in a state where basic needs for food and shelter are not available.

Elitism is a lazy place. I can simultaneously denounce the poor as unworthy of charity while denouncing the system that exploits the poor for fun and profit. Accountability is missing from both sides, and I can just sit back and complain.

Friday, May 26, 2006

Welcome to Sustainable Future

I am Mr. Rourke, your host, welcome to Sustainable Future. I'm here to help you transition. What would you like today?

Oh, thank you. How about a gallon of gas for my riding lawn mower?

I'm sorry, gas-powered lawn mowers have been banned - too polluting. Most urban lawns have been converted to gardens. Would you like some help converting your lawn?

Hmmm... ahhh, maybe later, I like long grass anyway. How about filling up my car with gas then?

Sure! I hope you don't mind, we had to do some work on your car to meet code (Don't worry the government covered the conversion cost) - it now is a two-seater and only weighs 300lb and we tuned the engine to get 145 mpg. The new tank holds 3 gallons, and a gallon of gas costs $37.539, so that'll be $112.67 to fill 'er up.

Ummmm.. okay, but where do my 3 kids sit?!

Oh, no problem, we have an optional attachment wagon, a 4-seater, first one is also on the house thanks to Uncle Sam, although it'll lower your milage to 115mpg.

Okay, but that little thing? It doesn't look very safe - I want to protect my kids you know!

Oh no, it's very safe, got a wide wheel base, and now that the speed limit is 25 mph on all roads, there's not been a traffic fatality in 8 years!

How do you enforce a 25mph speed limit? Don't people just speed anyway?

No problem there. The law says passenger vehicles can only have a 15HP engine, so it takes a few minutes to accelerate to that speed, and besides the government spent so much money on converting cars, they were short on road repair funds, so there's a few potholes. Don't worry, all the seats have springs and shoulder harnesses, and the kids LOVE the bouncing - just make sure they all keep their shoulder harnesses locked.

How sustainable are disintegrating roads? We'll not be able to travel at all if this keeps up!

The government has prioritized repairs and has directed primary road reconstruction into the old paver bricks. We use solar powered kilns to fire the ceramic bricks so they're very strong. It's a bonded 75 year project, and roads that don't make the cut will be abandoned or converted to gravel.

Well, I'll take a drive with the kiddies then and explore the new city. Hmmm... hot day today, looks like this car doesn't have A/C. Maybe we'll head down to the beach and cool off. Thanks for the conversion Mr. Rourke!

Glad to be of service! Next please?

I am Mr. Rourke, your host, welcome to Sustainable Future. I'm here to help you transition.. What would you like today?

Thursday, May 25, 2006

sugar power?

Just a dumb thought - take a product that you can either "eat" or "fuel your car", what will you do? If there's plenty of food, you have surplus to use as fuel. BUT how much surplus can you really get AND how much will it cost?

Now consider a person say need 2500 Kcal/day to live. Now contrast to a car. Say a person "needs" to drive 40 miles/day (15000/year) and gets 20 mpg. They need 2 gallons of fuel per day. How much energy does a gallon of gasoline have?
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Research.html Says 38,000 kcal/gallon.

So my car "needs" to eat 76,000 kcal/day, and I need to eat 2500 kcal/day. So one car = 30 people!

Of course it takes energy to convert sugar to ethanol. Let's say you can get a 3:1 energy ratio on creating ethanol; that means you get 2/3 as much ethanol energy as the original sugar. (I've heard Brazil sugar cane can offer 3:1 ratios of input to output energy, although corn ethanol is much lower.)

So enough ethanol to hold 76,000 kcal will be made from sugar containing 114,000 kcal of energy.

So my car now up to about 46 people worth of food. Of course it is "only sugar" and people can't eat just sugar.

Now how much is sugar worth? $0.11/lb! http://www.sugaronline.com/ Wow!

How much energy does a lb of sugar have? I remember - 4 kcal/g --> 1800 kcal/lb.

So at these prices I can eat 1.4lb of sugar a day and my car can eat 63lb/day or about $7.00/day for my car. Well looking back to my assumpion - 40 miles/day that's about 1.5lb of sugar per mile. Oh, and back to an equivalent of 2 gallons of gas, that's about $3.50/gallon gas equivalent.

Overall I accept these numbers are nonsense, especially about sugar to ethanol conversion efficiency. The main thing maybe is to see the idea "Driving a car one mile uses as much food energy as one person per day."

It's not so profound - cars use more energy than people - surprised? We've been able to do this because we have fossil fuels which are concentrated energy from past biological (plant) growth and partial decay. Trying to do the same thing with "live solar energy" means we want to speed things up greatly, and even if we can do it, it can't scale up to what we want to replace.

As long as fossil fuels are "feeding people", the competition between people and machines for energy is hidden, but the more we try to replace fossil fuels with biomass the more we're going to risk conflicts and perhaps risk poor countries exporting crops for fuel while their local populations have problems getting enough food. Curious questions, and I don't know the answers except to assume we'll have less freedom to travel in the future without fossil fuels.

New Energy Clinton

Senator Clinton offered a powerful speech in favor of reducing our dependence upon oil. I heard it on public radio today, couldn't find a transcript, but pasted a news article below.

Overall her "program" suggestion was much more comprehensive than I could offered, partly because I accept every choice has tradeoffs and I'm not in a position of knowledge to advocate which solutions are best in the long run.

The biggest thing missing from me in her "hype" for change is basically COST. An "honest" speech to me would say "Alternative energy will NEVER be as cheap as what we're replacing and all have tradeoffs that will limit what we've become acustomed to. Everything we know today is at risk if we DON'T change course soon, but however dedicated we are to change we're ALL going to have to tighten our belts and adjust our lifestyles to survive the next 30 years."

I suppose no politician, maybe President Carter as the exception, can offer realism. To be fair she admitted that gas guzzlers have got to go and people should pay more for them, but she stopped short of offered an expanded gas tax as a necesary solution.

I can't imagine what reforms are realistic in politics given large money interests controlling the debate, and as well common citizens resistant towards sacrifice for the future. Whatever can get passed will as likely be throwing money at money and hoping for the best.

In my mind the problem is SO BIG that the best solutions will as often as not be for the government to "set the rules" and get out of the way and let local communities to respond to their own needs. Well, that's obvious in principle, but messy to know what it really means.

Clinton quoted a woman driving 30 miles to work each day as an example of suffering, but didn't make the "cold-blooded response" that this lifestyle will become more and more unviable. What can the government do? Sadly the medicine for me is to tax consumption and make it harder sooner for such decisions, and I know such solutions will be resisted.

She also supposed antiprice gouging laws, although to her credit she admits they are limited responses and implied in part at least we ourselves our to blame and only we can change our ways to reduce our dependency.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/23/AR2006052301968_pf.html
Clinton Lays Out Energy PlanSenator Wants to Halve Consumption of Foreign Oil by 2025
By Dan BalzWashington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, May 24, 2006; A0

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) said yesterday that the United States should cut its consumption of foreign oil in half by 2025, and outlined a national strategy of tax incentives, an oil-profits tax and more funds for research aimed at spurring conservation and development of alternative sources of energy.

The prospective 2008 presidential candidate warned of dire consequences if the nation fails to curb its energy consumption habits, asserting that inaction in the face of rising oil prices and terrorist threats puts both national security and the country's economic competitiveness at risk.
"Our present system of energy is weakening our national security, hurting our pocketbooks, violating our common values and threatening our children's future," Clinton said in a speech at the National Press Club. "Right now, instead of national security dictating our energy policy, our failed energy policy dictates our national security."

Clinton's prescriptions included a series of targets, mandates and requirements designed to shift the country away from foreign oil. It marked the second time in as many months that she has delivered a major speech on domestic policy. Although she is concentrating on winning reelection to the Senate this fall, the speeches have begun to amplify her positions on national challenges that will confront whoever becomes president in 2009.

Clinton echoed what President Bush said in his State of the Union address earlier this year when he decried nation's addiction to foreign oil, but her solutions went further.

She also chided Vice President Cheney for having said early in the Bush presidency that conservation was not a viable solution to energy shortages. "The truth is that conservation is not just a personal virtue but an important part of any sensible energy policy," she said.

Clinton said she plans to introduce legislation to create a strategic energy fund, largely paid for by an excess profits tax on big oil companies, who she noted earned a combined $113 billion in profits last year.

She estimated that the profits tax and a repeal of other tax breaks for the oil industry could pump $50 billion into the energy fund over two years and pay for an array of tax incentives and for $9 billion in new research initiatives for wind, solar and other alternative energy resources. Oil companies could escape the tax if they reinvested profits into similar programs.
To speed the shift from foreign oil, Clinton proposed incentives for hybrid cars, improving household energy efficiency, accelerating development of ethanol made from plant wastes and installing ethanol pumps at gas stations.

Clinton joked that her 40-minute speech, which included references to "geologic sequestration" and "cellulosic ethanol," was "probably a lot more wonkish" than many in the audience had come to hear. She offered energy conservation tips from installing fluorescent lighting to keeping automobile tires fully inflated.

Her goal, she said, is to reduce the use of foreign oil by about 8 million barrels a day by 2025, but she set a series of interim targets as well, among them requiring that 20 percent of electricity be produced by renewable energy sources by the year 2020.

Clinton was notably cool to increased use of nuclear power, citing problems of cost, safety, proliferation and waste. She said she supports higher fuel efficiency standards for automobiles but warned against steps that would force U.S. automakers to move production to other countries.

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH

A new horror movie is coming out, narrated by the once next president of the United States, Al Gore, showing evididence of climate change, link at:
http://www.climatecrisis.net/

I'm ALL FOR a spokesperson for climate change, and my only reserve is the "Exaggeration effect". The only thing I learned from reading Rush Limbaugh's book is that "People with causes are not to be trusted with their facts."

How do you "scare" peeople into acting upon SLOW crises before it is too late?

The website above starts with:
Humanity is sitting on a ticking time bomb. If the vast majority of the world's scientists are right, we have just ten years to avert a major catastrophe that could send our entire planet into a tail-spin of epic destruction involving extreme weather, floods, droughts, epidemics and killer heat waves beyond anything we have ever experienced.

Is this true? I don't know. Myself, I'm betting the Gulf Hurricanes will score more touchdowns this summer and fall, and I'm glad I don't live in a hurricane zone. But I also know things go in cycles, and making explicit predictions, even like "ten years" however "prophetic" risks down playing the issue if the crisis unfolds slower than that.

I'm WITH the climate change supporters, and largely pessimistic that (1) We can do much about it. (2) We will do much about it.

So don't get ME talking in public. I don't know about 10 years, but I accept the premise of the Long Emergency that the next 20-30 years will leave us with a world much different than we know now. Different environment, different expectations, and different priorities.

I'm content to let the crisis managers perform their magic "mitigation". I think we'll be better for anything we can do to conserve and plan ahead. I just don't think it'll change our destination.

Einstein said you can't solve a problem with the same consciousness that created it. I think that applies, and I don't see the systems of laws and institutions that rose in our time of abundance will be capable of the change required of us.

Anyway I do like Gore's film title, "An inconvenient truth" - there's more than one, but it's a start!

Saturday, May 20, 2006

Annoyed and curious

Got linked to a 1996 video "Free Energy: The Race to Zero Point"
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8943205214784769158

A "pretty" 2 hours presentation of the "cutting edge" of backyard inventers changing the laws of physics for new energy sources.

I'm annoyed I know enough to be skeptical, but not enough to separate fact and deception. Obviously the producers of the video had ZERO interest in validation and wanted a "gee-whiz" demonstration of claimed of "free energy", "cold fusion", through the magic of magnetism and electricity apparently.

It is surely a waste of my time to even try to hope for truth. I try to be a lawyer or police officer and try to imagine the "motive" for deception, or even the motives for making the video.

Well, the producers of the 9+ year old video can get their money, still being sold ($35)
http://www.teslatech.info/ttstore/books/310040.htm

If you're selling videos, you want to show people SUCCESS not FAILURE. Viewers are free to assume producers looked at hundreds of sources, eliminated the hoaxes, scams, and confused, and presented the best demonstrations for new sources of energy.

Alas, I'm not overly confident we are capable so viewers can just scratch their heads and say "Hmmm... interesting." or "Bah, nonsense!", or "God be praised!" or whatever suits your needs.

At least I maybe better know a little where my gullible Dad gets his world-view from. He likes other noncritical programs like "Coast-to-coast" for news.

It is fun to think the video was 9 years ago, so you gotta wonder what "progress" has been made since it was made, since oil and NG prices have tripled. Whose been holding out this technology from the masses who need to get to work and heat their homes? Have the inventers been "silenced" again by the power-interests.

My Dad LOVES the story of Tesla, how he had found ways to transmit electricity long distances but was held back by J.P. Morgan because he wanted wires to meter the new electrical development.

Well, lets look on the web, promoters now are:
1. http://www.seaspower.com/
Space Energy Access Systems, Inc. (SEAS) is in the process of identifying and testing new technologies that claim to be "over unity"; that is, they put out more electric power than is required to operate.
... News .. On Coast-to-coast - Hurray! http://www.disclosureproject.org/TranscriptGeorgeNooryInterviewOct282004-part1.htm
Oh, looks bad - CEO loves UFOS! His name is Dr. Steven Greer, and a long time ago he developed the Disclosure Project, a not for profit research project working to fully disclose the facts about UFOs, extraterrestrial intelligence, and also classified advanced energy and propulsion systems. He has devoted his time and his life to this project.

2. http://freeenergynews.com/Directory/ZPE/

3. http://www.zpenergy.com/ ZPEnergy is a news portal devoted to experimental research/applications in new revolutionary energy technologies . It aims to connect together people who have the same pragmatic goal: bring to the public amazing devices which can tap a seemingly unlimited supply of energy that fills the universe, the so called "Zero Point Energy" (ZPE).

I surrender. I can see why traditional scientists would shun these directions, and given limits fund must be a money-pit to try to imagine invalidating every false claim out there. I'm most concerned against true con artists, but there's plenty of merely deluded people as well, looking for the pot of gold over the rainbow.

I also think of my toastmaster club. A retired High school math teacher gave a speech about the power of magnets to reduce pain and promote health. He was selling these things - put them in your shoes and such. He admitted he "gave back to society in teaching", and his new goal was to become a millionaire, or something like that. Hard to trust anyone whose goal is merely to get rich. He was clearly intelligent and persuasive, at least in the general sense, if you wanted to trust him. I tried to imagine if insincerity, but couldn't see it.

I think of a song my mom used to sing and play on the piano with the words "... follow the fellow who follows his dreams." Well we all like dreamers who believe they can change the world, right? Unfortunately dreamers can be corrupted by action. I should say "real dreamers" are ANNOYING for never doing, and those who DO, and CHALLENGE THEIR DREAMS in reality have ambition issues and risk compromising truth for their goals.

Enough for tonight!

Subsidizing transit

Thinking about transit, and reading "Taxpayer's league's" flyer against Northstar corridor rail:
http://www.taxpayersleague.org/pdf/Off_the_Rails.pdf
vs
http://www.northstartrain.org/

It is easy to agree, "Yeah, a $0.64/mile/passenger subsidy is outrageous."

And if fares cover 44% of the costs, then costs must be $1.14/mile/passenger! AND if passengers are paying $0.50/mile, and traveling say 20 miles, that's $10 fare - each way! If commuting, that's $100/week, or $5200/year.

One must first wonder why costs are so high?! Secondly wonder why people would WANT to travel so far ANYWAY?!

I imagine part of the cost estimates are related to "start up" costs, and part are "operational costs", well, and part "debt servicing", and averaged over some period.

I do accept the argument that development WILL proceed best along commuting corridors. Certainly it happens along freeways. If we believe the Twin Cities area WILL keep growing and we must MAKE ROOM, it makes sense to encourage growth on corridors where transit can expand.

Well, the rail website says a 35 minute commute from Elk River. I admit a 35 minute commute, where you can relax and read or whatever seems nicer than driving, BUT what's the chances the rail will get you within walking distance of your job? Add a bus transfer with a 10 minute wait, and 15 minute ride, and you're up to 60 minutes anyway. PLUS you don't have a car available to do errands along the way.

Overall I accept the argument that in DENSE development trains can run frequently and cost effectively. I think of my 10 day visit to Washington DC, taking the metro rail everywhere, only transfered to a bus once, and did a fair bit of walking. I bought 2 5-day passes for like $20 each, so $4/day for transit, and I think $0.25 to transfer to a bus. I admit if I lived there I'd likely bike around more than anything.

Another issue is "families". I remember as a kid, my mom took my sister and I downtown by bus. I think we went to the planetarium or something. We may or may not have had a (second) car then, but I think she wanted us to know how to take the bus.

I admit I'm as spoiled as anyone growing up with the idea of the car as freedom - jump in - KIDS - JUNK - ANYTIME - NO WAIT - QUICK TRAVEL. The illusion is only occasionally broken by the reality of road congestion. It is very hard for me to imagine raising a family without exclusive access to a car. Best I can imagine now with the "nuclear family", is a single car, and one adult commuting by transit, and one with the car - ideally both could use transit interchangeably. Commuting is the simplest travel when it works well.

Okay, back to transit. When computing subsidy I'm willing to break down costs, consider development costs separately, and compare just the operational subsidy. I accept this breakdown assuming "growth" and that future development and demand will exist.

Isolating development costs is tricky because there's lots of costs. It might be CHEAPER now to assume everyone has a car, and sprawl development everywhere BUT when energy costs increase, congestion increases, viability is lost. The "costs" are hidden in individual losses of people trapped in debt and unviable economic demands.

I guess with the Northstar rail, I'd only consider it in relation to a "master development plan", where there is plan of housing densities along the rail to make it more viable in the long term.

Density for me is the key idea. Maybe we can't REMAKE our entire metro area into someplace that supports transit, but if we can make some development transit-friendly, I'm sure we'll be better off in the long run.

I accept that current rail demand will be "underutilized" and "overly costly", but the potential for expansion offers hope.

On a related but different issue, development can be an ugly prospect because people WILL SPECULATE on it and people who say buy land early can make lots of money in appreciation. I imagine smart people have bought up all the open land for development around the river and will make a killing to sell it for development IF northstar is built. Well, I don't have a solution against speculation. I dislike it for raising costs - like a monopoly. Still, maybe better to have speculation along higher density corridors than sprawl?

It is funny - if we do NOTHING. If we put up "no development" signs all around the metro extents and force higher density housing, THEN demand will raise property values and rents and everything anyway and "affordable" housing will decrease and MAYBE we might actually FORCE people to leave the metro area, or discourage people from moving here.

A part of me supports the "development walls" to end sprawl development. Well I suppose the "last sprawl wave" would say "Thank you" so they can keep their neighboring open spaces. And "next wave speculators" will curse their useless land purchases that can't be developed.

Overall I'm sure what we're doing is unsustainable, wasteful, and I worry about the people who live in the exurbs and such. An exurb friend said I shouldn't worry, but she's also a friend who is outraged at the idea of a gas tax to encourage conservation, although her blind lashing appears as much on the grounds of "The evil government will have more money to waste" than her own bottom line.

It is also funny how "empowering" modern roads are. Roads are as corrupting as cars because combined they allow people to travel far and wide and often without great thought to the long term viability of their lifestyles.

I'm SURE our existing roadways are UNVIABLE in the long term and some sort of strategic abandonment will have to occur. Road costs are astronomical now and will never get cheaper.

I think of the rental property I own with a 110' driveway to a backyard garage. Perhaps $5000 for a new asphalt driveway, or $12000 for a new concrete driveway? Which do I choose? If I was limited purely to "rental income", I'd probably choose "dirt"! Even $5000 is hard to swallow, although $250/year for 20 years, but asphault requires greater maintenance costs and doesn't do well under the strong freeze thaw periods in our transition months.

It seems to me that "smart" communities will invest for the long term - concrete - which will last much longer even with a higher construction cost. Yet very few road projects can afford to double their costs, given our expected needs.

Just like my rental property driveway dilemma, road decision makers have limited funds. And like me, I don't really have an option of "only paving a 50' driveway." How does a city or county or state say "We'll build 80-year concrete streets HERE and let asphalt crumble to dust another 5 years THERE?" Well, such decisions do exist, but political will is tough.

The "fair" approach is to keep dividing the pie until everyone gets a "fair slice", even if NO ONE can afford to make a good long term choice with their portion.

I know - it's not really true if you consider bonding debt. In theory a city CAN BUDGET 50 years for a road project and then invest in the best long term choice. JUST like I can take on more debt for a better driveway in the long run.

I accept DEBT for long term goals, but it's still a risk with an unknown future. I mean REALLY unknown - given our unsustainable consumption of fossil fuels and a world market ready to eat every drop of supply and more. Peak oil or merely supply-limited pricing, energy WILL get more expensive. Well, in that sense, if you believe society will still be viable in 50 years, perhaps building roads NOW with cheap energy is the better bet anyway, assuming future need will appreciate it.

One last stab at transit, along with investing in stronger (and fewer roads), perhaps the future will be as much about converting old crumbling roadways to rail? I'd imagine rails have a lower per mile cost than concrete, and appear to be a better choice for intercity travel.

AND to go fully off topic, I've had a fun dream that future development ought to occur in SW Minnesota near Buffalo ridge where wind development is efficient. Industry that demands power ought to be located NEAR renewable energy sources.

Impossible to see how all the parts will work together to cover the gaps of the next 20 years, but I must believe somehow we'll manage. It's an ugly surrender to an uncertain world.

As much as I wish "good planning" and "common good" can lead us, I think as much like a republican and say "If you're dependent upon the government for your needs, think again, and be afraid." Well, most for the federal government, while I expect state/county/city governments will take up more and more slack as the shit starts hitting the fan in the coming "Long Emergency".

Thursday, May 18, 2006

The Idealogy of Smaller Government

Ideas that seem too good to be true usually are, like "Hey that darn government taking all your money as taxes is really too damned big and needs a diet plan, and when WE succeed on this diet, we'll give you all your money back, well most of it."

I can agree in part agree with the assertion that institutions like Government, without external constraints will tend to grow beyond a size that it is beneficial to do so, becoming a self-propagating solution looking for a problem and all that.

The part that bothers me is not the idea of questioning the proper role of government, but the reverse extremism. Like an anorexic pushing "leanness" to the limits until proper understanding of health is lost. I don't necessarily think government must get smaller, not necessarily, but more I think it is about prioritizing.

I admit I feel better about infrastructure, education type spending, spending on things that are long term investments that will not only benefit now, but the next generation as well. I like investments that can REDUCE the cost of living in the future. AT LEAST I see these things must be considered along with the present needs.

The danger in the "starve the beast" mentality of self-interest is the ease of being "penny wise, pound foolish", and diminishing the future through a lack of vision. I appreciate a sensible voice of prioritizing and limiting, but not as the only one.

And on LONGER term issues like global warming, even I am basically in denial, unwilling to admit my lifestyle might be contributing. I generally accept Kyoto Protocol ideals - anything that can help us better get a true cost of burning fossil fuels so we'll transition away sooner.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Laws of petropolitics?

Thomas Friedman proposes the "Laws of petropolitics" based on the idea basically that freedom and state control to oil wealth are related inversely, at least in countries without well-developed democratic institutions.
http://www.eande.tv/main/?date=051706

Basically it comes down to an idea that government is not responsible to the people if it has control over large amounts of wealth gained without work or taxes from the people.

It seems like a useful although dangerous generalization that can be abused by applying to all our political opponents and not to our friends.

I accept the generalization in the sense that power corrupts and easy wealth creates governments that is greased by any sort of easy wealth and then can bribe the people with trinkets to keep them distracted from interest in whose getting how much.

Power can be lost in revolution or civil war. It can also be lost by less violent democratic processes. Democracy itself can look good on the surface, but if money interests can largely control the results, then it's just an illusion, an illusion that can be maintained through legalized bribery.

Whether I think Friedman had got the right big picture, I accept his argument that the U.S. is in danger because we're dependent upon fossil fuels entering a world of demand exceeding supply, and if we don't take the lead, China or another country will, and we'll be left behind.

I'm more afraid than he is that things will turn bad BECAUSE nothing will replace what we've had, Friedman believes technical solutions will come from necessity and I can't disagree. He sees "huge profits" for those who take the risks into the new energies. I'm not convinced prices alone are sufficient incentive to act fast enough to face the dangers. Well, Friedman and I agree a large gasoline or oil tax is needed to encourage transition before the crisis.

Anyway, glad for the discussion, whatever progresss can happen. I expect things to still crash sooner than later whatever we try, but now is the time to see what options we have. I'd work more on the "lifeboat" side because I'm afraid of a period of depression where the entire economy fails to meet even basic needs.

It is funny, what "insurance" does a society need against system collapse? Who will insure the basic needs of the people for food and shelter and productive work? Obviously the government is responsible, although the government is actually a multitude of institutions from (1) Household, (2) Neighborhood, (3) City, (4) County, (5) State, (6) Country.

Traditionally the Federal government is considered responsible for large scale disasters and crises, like the hurricanes in New Orleans last year. I expect as things fall that more and more the federal government will retreat willingly or unwilling from expected obligations, and lower level goverment institutions will have to take up the slack.

Someday, maybe in 1000 years if we've not wrecked the earth, all the easy fossil energy will be gone and perhaps we'll be more democratic, or perhaps back to tribalism, who knows? Too bad I'll never find out...

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

The case FOR a larger gas tax

People are addicted to gasoline. They admit it:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2006-05-15-conserve-usat_x.htm Most Americans aren't likely to make big cuts in gasoline use

Oil companies know this, and they'll milk our addiction for all its worth (to us).

Maybe someday the government will learn the same lesson?

Unfortunately, it'll take a pretty big gasoline tax to eat into the government's addiction to spending - and current $600B annual deficit!

Sunday, May 14, 2006

Progress isn't what it used to be

A worthy topic offered by James Howard Kunstler. Normally a rather loud mouth pessimist, this topics catches my imagination and parallels my thoughts - basically "How do you define progress and justice under an era of decline?"

One might imagine progressive in the era of the Roman Empire. As brutal as the empire was, it was large an inclusive one, at least given surrender of your wealth into taxes. Citizenship in the Roman Empire represented prestige and freedom, access to wider knowledge of the Greeks, freedom to travel and set your own destiny within the framework allowed, a practical economic engine.

I can't imagine what the slow decline of an empire felt like, and expect our "empire" based on faster access to everything will fall more quickly.

Back in the industrial power days raw human labor in factors offered some access to new wealth to the common workers, and unions expanded that shared wealth. Unions have lost a great amount of power, whatever your judgements on that are. I feel sorry for the pilot's unions and lower workers in the airline industry. In days of contraction, unions can demand whatever they wish, but they just give excuses to "industry" towards needed contraction.

Unions are perhaps the center of the issue of "progress" - that is to mean sharing the wealth of unsustainable exploitation of the environment. Even if I choose to admire Venesuela's loud mouth president and his idealistic socialism via oil wealth, I worry about consequences. I'm elitist enough to believe "easy wealth" is "easily wasted" and a generation or two of sharing oil wealth will breed unsustainable expectations. I'm glad literacy has expanded but I don't trust tha democracy (or even benevolent dictators) can last under easy wealth. I suppose my biggest concern is over population - easy wealth brings easy population gains which will stress the environment BEFORE wealth depletion throws them back into poverty.

The issue of immigration is a very "progressive issue" - letting ever new generations of Americans to lift up the older generations by cheap manual labor, but the "pyramid scheme" must end sometime and I fear when "peak oil" hits, there'll form a permanent underclass in this country who will never get a chance to share in the wealth they helped to create.

Slavery itself is claimed to be undemocratic, but I must imagine the nature of slavery will be stretched and turned as needed to power the next generation of wealth. You don't need slavery to mean "ownership of another person", if the power structures of society are sufficient at keeping those at the bottom in subsistent incomes. Slavery can as well be a claimed meriticracy, where a few are identified and pulled up, and the rest left to rot and care for their own needs.

I don't know what I'm really talking about, but I imagine DEBT can be the most powerful tool of slavery - convince people they OWE something, but don't allow them circumstances to ever escape their debt. This circumstances can be actual limits or just corruption - you like selling $0.05 popcorn for $5.00 at the movie theaters. Smart people MIGHT see how prudence can help people escape, but if people can't control their own urges, they'll dig a hole as fast as they try to rise out of it.

SO I'd probably define DEBT as the new-world-order of "class warfare". The idea for the upper class is to convince the lower class to stay in permanent debt. We can be SURE of this as bankrupsy laws become harsher, and inheritence wealth taxes become reduces so generations can maintain their power.

Myself, I'm lucky to think I can pay off my mortgage in 6 years. When our country started, only land-owners could vote. Perhaps someday voting as well could be restricted to wealthy. That seems easier than playing around with election equipment to maintain power.

Overall I think the future of unions is not to protect benfits for workers, but to help workers cooperate to escape cycles of poverty and debt. It's a "backstep", but seems necessary. Maybe unions are not the tool for this new "progressivism", but what else? Unions are too focused on specific types of labor, while I'm thinking more of organizations that encourage a wide variety of people to work together for common goals in improving their wider community.

Anyway, I liked Kunstler's questions, so I pasted it below.



http://www.kunstler.com/
May 15, 2006

Is it even possible these days to define a valid doctrine of political Progressivism? The notion of Progressivism per se really comes from that brief and amazing period in the early 20th century when technological advance was lifting so many out of misery that social justice actually began to seem a plausible political goal rather than an idealist fantasy, and social reformers raced to catch up with the advances of telephones, motorcars, and sanitary engineering.

Progressivism also may have been fatally tied to the accompanying reality of robust industrial economic growth, which itself was tied to abundant new energy resources, mainly oil. The belief that more of everything would become available raised the moral issue of allocating it fairly. Since we now face declining energy resources, and perhaps long-range economic contraction, we would appear to also now face the awful task of allocating less of everything -- which may be as impossible in practice as it sounds.

So the question now might be: what kind of economic justice is possible?

The group that used to composed the broad American middle class of industrial workers and managers is disintegrating economically. What will concern them in the years just ahead will be their ability to barely hang on to what they've got, including the roofs over their heads and their health. They will be in no mood for a political movement that is preoccupied with pseudo-psychotherapeutic exercises in self-esteem building along racial and gender lines.

Allocating scarcity will probably be impossible on the grand scale, which is the federal level. The Republicans have succeeded in recent year by enabling the allocation of false wealth, credit, but their ability to continue that will come to an end with the housing bubble implosion, which will destroy the presumed value of the main asset all that credit has gone into: suburban houses. When that happens, there will be nothing to allocate but grievance.

True Progressivism sought justice in human affairs, that is, in socio-economic relations that people had some control over. What can we hope to control now? Not the price of oil in worldwide markets.

The entire thrust of American life the past forty years has been toward the privatization of public goods. That is why suburbia will turn out to be such a fiasco -- because the public realm, and everything in it, was impoverished, turned into a universal automobile slum, while the private realm of the house and the car was exalted. The private goods of suburbia will now have to be liquidated and we will be left with little more than parking lots and freeways too expensive to use.

A true Progressivism of the years ahead has to begin by concerning itself with a redefinition of what our public goods really are -- and in practical, not abstract terms. That's why I harp on the project of restoring the railroad system. Not only will it benefit all classes of Americans in terms of sheer getting around, but it would put tens of thousands of people to work at something with real value. It would also begin the process of healing public space ravaged by cars for almost a hundred years.

A true Progressivism would concern itself with the comprehensive reform of all land use laws, policies, codes, and tax incentives that promote more new car-dependent suburban development. A new Progressivism would put dwindling public monies into the re-activation of our harbors and shipping infrastructure. We're going to need it. It would direct remaining agricultural subsidies into explictly organic, local farming enterprises, not to the Archer Daniel Midland corporation. It would revive the legal practice of restricting monopolies in business. It has to lead us in the direction of making other arrangements for how we live.

The obvious problem, of course, is that the American public doesn't want to make other arrangements. It wants desperately to hold onto the old arrangements. The nation is stuck with its enormous investments in car-dependency, and what has remained of our economy lately is devoted to creating even more of it -- in the face of signals that we won't be able to run it no matter how much people like it.

Progress isn't what it used to be, and it isn't what it seems. If Americans get what they deserve they may give up on both progress and justice.


Saturday, May 13, 2006

Population, Parenting, household, and expense sharing

I met David Paxton again this week, president of World Population Balance, http://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/.

I had talked to him probably 9 years ago at a sustainable society convention. Back then I took in his argument and accepted a problem. My main issue was that focusing on population alone made it appear the problem was "somewhere else" - those other people are the ones having too many children, you know? WHILE we are perhaps unsustainably using 100x more resources in our lifetimes than some people who may have more children.

Another thought wondered why women would WANT to have more than 2 children? In part I imagine male-dominated repressive societies which disallow women to participate publicly, which limit education for women, such societies that recognize women's social standing by her husband and her children, many such women will have lots of children simply because they don't see an alternative.

I considered the idea of quality versus quantity, and imagined women would tend more towards fewer children with a higher quality care, and men might tend towards hedging their evolutionary bets on many children, hoping a few will be successful, even if some will fail to thrive, and some might have done better with more attention.

Generalized speculation all of course, but maybe worth something.

Even if you argue women might want quality over quantity of children, there is something like a 15-20 year investment in a child, and 2,3, or 4 children spaced a few years apart do not add a proportional increased demand in attention, and only a few more years of devotion, so whatever you believe on how many children an average women SHOULD have, there is an economy of scale - that is to say women who LIKE caring for children, and gain proficiency, perhaps can well raise 4, 5 or 6 children, as well as raising 2, and society should be happy if such familiesALSO are in a position to support that many children.

Now myself, since I accept keeping average children below 2 is not bad with the world's current population, if I say it's good some women have 6 kids, then some women ought to have zero or 1 child to compensate. AND since I lean towards thinking 1 child is the "least efficient" use of time and resources, then a good number of women might be best off having zero children. Whether or not balancing women who WANT no children and those who WANT 6 children will come out to a desired 2ish, I can't guess.

On the larger family size, I believe this can be good for the socialization of children, learning to cooperate and learn how to set boundaries, as well as a sense of belonging. In contrast my imagination says single-child families could be less healthy, perhaps creating a "spoiled child" by parents banking success on one child, and generally not being as experienced how to response to demands of parenthood.

Wel, thoughts such as these, along with external demands of a successful household, suggest that perhaps the nuclear family isn't the idea, at least not under less abundant times, and maybe we're heading that way with work peak oil production and reduced resources available.

So I imagine people who choose zero or one child ought to "get together" with people who want to have more children, and build a bigger collective "household". Even if you imagine 2 "single child" families coming to together, it seems helpful to liven things up.

All that said, I accept in my mind, it difficult to imagine me (and people in general) to abandon the "nuclear family" ideal. Well certainly from the point of view of having no children myself, my life is pretty comfortably quiet and low-maintenance. I'm not against "sharing my house" with a family - especially since I now live alone in a 3 bedroom house.

I don't mind "sharing space", but I admit my simple quiet life doesn't necessarily want "intrusion" in the sense of expanding time demands on me. I could "take a bedroom" in a larger house and be content, but mostly would expect to do my own thing most of the time. I say this mostly out of opposing expectations of strong social attachments within the household necessary. This is a sticky issue for me, probably left over from my own childhood - having two siblings, my own bedroom since I was about 12, and not overly participating in shared chores or outings.

In a time of abundance as now, I can afford to live alone in an empty house. I have minimal chores to do with cleaning, at least inside, and don't mind weekly lawn mowing and raking and such, so life is simple. It seems strange to imagine living with others ought to require MORE work, or a least more time, communicating and negociating and everything.

Sharing is hard. Before I lived alone, I had my divorced brother, sister, and brother-in-law living with me, and sometimes a niece as well. We all basically did our own things. I set up a housework chart - a simple weekly chart with tasks, and you put your initial by a task you did each week. It worked pretty well. Sharing money was a little harder. Initially I defined "shared expenses", including food, and divided costs equally each month. My brother, behind in "his share", claimed he ate out most of the time, so we reduced his food share.

Later when my sister as well had trouble keeping savings for the bigger months, like when property tax was due, I set up a "household checking account", and computed "rents" for all as a fixed monthly expense to cover predicted costs. The GOOD thing on the rent idea is rent amounts need not be equal between us, and so I paid more since I could make more. Sharing costs unequally is tricky, and basically acceptable only by volunteerism of the more wealthy participants. The TRICKIEST aspect perhaps was that although I could EARN more, I also judged that I spent more wisely as well. It might NOT have done my siblings any favor by allowing them to live more cheaply than the standard economic costs would usually allow. Part of me said to myself that it's THEIR future to throw away if they can't save anything or plan better for their own future. In that sense I accept the "household" as I experienced it was dysfunctional. I was "parenting" my siblings.

When I finally got tired of my brother-in-law complaining about how he had no money to pay rent, I got uppity and demanded records of how he was spending his money. I managed to get a hold of a few bank statements and he used a debit card, so most was documented. Well, short version of the story is he wisely rebelled against my nosiness, and through negociations with his MOTHER, he agreed to pay his rent share on the 15th of every month, and though some whining on my part some months, mostly followed through. What REALLY allowed me to stop letting him make me feel guilty over my own abundance, is my sister told me the $1200 TV he claimed was purchased long ago and taken from his parents was in fact brand new. Anyone who can't pay $100/month rent but can afford a $1200 TV, and LIES about it, deserves no pity from me. Again, sad sad dysfunctional relationships.

Well perhaps I know now why my life is so much more peaceful now. Why the HECK do I want to deal with deadbeat "roommates"? To be far, my cousin and her friend took two bedrooms for 6 months last year and paid rent on time every month. So at least it shows the value of setting clear boundaries and expectations. Kindness is easy on occassion, but it risks abuse if stretched too long. Exceptions to rules require "new rules", negociated new expectations. It's not "my fault" for not expressing clear expectation that "waiving this months rent after a big car repair bill" means "double rent" next month. It ought to be implied, or negociated, but talking about money can be uncomfortable for both sides.

I would be interested in new roommates in my house, and thinking next fall generally is the time I'll start getting more serious about a "search" or considering what I'm looking for. A big part of me is interested in "charity", in helping others with smaller means have a safe secure home, but I admit my charity may be too passive, and too trusting, where I can just set myself up AGAIN for feeling my kindness abused.

PERHAPS I could even imagine my "kindness" is some sort of defense in me, like a chance to feel superior or whatever. Well, I don't know. I like feeling independent myself, and FEAR being dependent upon uncertain kindness in others. In fact, having my top financial priority to pay down my mortgage comes from this fear of dependence upon income.

A friend said when he went to grad school, he maxed out a couple credit cards to make ends-meet. That seemed crazy since his parents could help him. He didn't trust he'd repay his parents, so would rather pay extra to a "godless" credit card company, than feel obligations to his parents. I consider that more extreme than my own position, but the difference is he's confident he can pay off his credit cards, while for me that debt would worry me, and I'd feel exploited for the interest.

I have a coworker from China, not a citizen, and because of his status that he can't get a mortgage for a house. We joked about his family living with me. He just had his second child. The problem is he wants a 3 bedroom house, so there'd be no room for me! It might work out real well. He only has one car, and I have none, and I have a one car garage. There's also an optional basement bedroom, but not overly attractive - could be finshed off a little more, like the ceiling. Perhaps even add sound proofing in the ceiling.

I keep my basement cold in the winter and it gets humid in the summer, because cooler, so a dehumidifier could help. Generally there's just not a lot of air flow which concerns me for living down there.

Welll, funny I went from abstract population issue to household, but easier to consider my own life and have some idea that I know what I'm talking about.

In the future, especially a harder future, I'd expect more creative households to arise, many most out of necessity, short term arrangements, but some might be intentional and planned and considered more permanent.

I admit I was disappointed when my favorite cousin only stayed for 6 months last year. The ambition for "one's own home" is strong, even if costly. I don't know if my cousin really can afford her choice. It's funny people complain about $3/gallon gas, while less united voice against properly value appreciation for buyers. The difference is we'll never own an oil well, while we can all aspire to own a home and have appreciation as well.

So I guess as long as things are pretty good economically, I can't easily expect any "roommate" situation as long term. I'm just giving people a breather space to "upgrade" to their own home. It is discouraging. I suppose for new home buyers the duplex approach is not bad - buy "two homes in one", and rent half. Since living space is divided, more chance perhaps people will see it as a long term option. While sharing space, one owning, the other(s) renting, is UNEQUAL and harder to maintain.

If I didn't have a house, I'd look at small one-bedroom apartments, or even smaller. I'd look into sharing a 2-bedroom apartment to reduce costs, but I imagine that is at least as hard as what I'm looking for. A roommate requires trust and sharing expectations and if that person leaves with rent unpaid, or leaves in general you're stuck paying double rent until a replacement is found.

Anyway, these issues are interesting to me for the challenges of sharing. Maybe it's crazy to even try, but from the rich american point of view it is impossible to imagine how many people in the world live - families sharing beds even! My mom, with her 4 sisters and 2 brothers, she talks of sharing a bed with her sister. We're pretty darn spoiled, and for all our expanded living space, not clearly better off.

Friday, May 12, 2006

Peak supply, peak demand

The peak oil movement believes world oil production is approaching a peak - identified after the fact as the year where the largest amount of oil produced (extracted) from the ground. The theory says we've used up something like 1/2 of the world's extractable supplies of oil and the second half is harder to extract.

Prudent thinkers would say we ought to "predict" this supply peak and encourage demand to peak just ahead of the decline curve so prices don't go out of control. Is this really prudent or should we just blindly wait for "demand destruction" based on price as it comes by "free markets?"

I accept the argument that in the long run conservation alone can serve no purpose except to keep prices lower for others who are late-comers to conserving for themselves.

The opposite side might imagine we ALL ought to (1) exploit cheap prices now for fun and profit (2) Be prepared to reverse course as prices rise.

What does that mean? Individually consuming oil generally comes from transportation, but how do I exploit low prices for fun and profit? Obviously being personally dependent upon low prices is risky, like living 60 miles from my work. I suppose we might say "party time" and travel, knowing things will change, but what's the use, unless I really want to travel. Well, in short, I have no great personal need for oil. I guess I could stock up on cheap electronics if I liked that, and any products that need a lot of energy, but things aren't built to last anymore, so what products can I buy for the long run?

It still seems my best bet continues to keep my expenses low and pay down mortgage debt.

The opposite side, the fear from OPEC, is that high prices will encourage a new source of energy and material that will displace petroleum. I don't believe substitution will work, at least not at current prices and consumption.

It is funny I'm all in favor of the reduced consumption incentives, but I admit if markets can keep the "shit from hitting the fan" (economic recession, unemployment, inflation), I might say Okay, let's see what happens. But if we could look backwards after the crisis perhaps there are more efficient steps we could take now.

If I KNEW oil would hit $300/bbl in 2007, and average $150 in 2007, I'd guess we'll be in deep shit, but perhaps I'd have said the same thing with $75/bbl oil when it was down around $30.

I SEE, in terms of planning, you want to be able to exploit prices while they're low and be able to offer quick substitutions if prices change. I mean individually and collectively.

At the moment natural gas consumption in North America is being displaced. Products are moving off continent that need NG to make, like fertilizers.

I wonder if the transportation industry could offer large scale shifts quickly based on cost? Well, there's like rail over trucking for transporting goods. I wonder if the airlines could cut back - probably not without even more bankruptsy - well that industry seems doomed anyway.

PROBABLY the best "conservation" tool now is speed-limits - a tool that can offer immediate results. In a longer term, smaller cars with lower power seem to me to have great potential for downsizing demand.

I try to envision poor people (or frugal people) living without cars, but smaller lighter slower cars are another choice. Parents love Minivans and SUVs, but I imagine such "people/kid movers" can be smaller, slower, lighter.

For me I'd say we should be making cars with a maximum speed of 40mpg, and weights on the same order as the people they move. A 30lb bike carries a 150lb person, so 20% vehicle weight. A moped might weigh 75lb, or 50%. For a 6-person vehicle limit, that's maybe 1000lb of people. Can we have a vehicle for them under 1000lb as well?

I imagine in the future that somehow efficient batteries will be created and lightweight slow cars will be created to get people around like cars today.

That's how I see cities evolving at least. I don't see how suburban and rural areas will replace cars. City people ought to appreciate 30mph speeds - 10 times faster than walking. Maybe networks of trains can do better than freeways?

It would seem wise to try these now.

Thursday, May 11, 2006

The Day After

Imagine someday in the future a time will come when a majority of Americans will surrender their God-given right to own their own car. In the days of the greatest empire on earth, it is inconceivable to imagine such a day will come. In our days, not even the lowest of lower class consider life without an automobile is possible. How could this change?

Cost estimates for an automobile are perhaps now around $6000/year, averaging purchase costs, interest, insurance, gas, maintenance over its lifetime. Driving less miles can definitely cut costs, but many costs don't have a strong proportionality to distance driven. If you consider "efficiency" as $/mile, driving MORE is more cost efficient!

This little fact of "fixed costs" being high to me suggests wise people would try to SHARE cars for access while dividing costs. In practice it is hard enough within one household, and even harder to imagine with neighbors - since we're all too busy to take the time to socialize enough to trust sharing a car with neighbors on a regular basis.

Teens growing up in the suburbs would seem to be those most harmed by the growing costs of cars. At least many will purchase their first car with the help of parents, but that proud day soon becomes a great time sucker. Lets say teens can get away with investing only $3000/year for their car - say driving a low 5,000 miles/year. Say they can make $8/hour, or $6/hour after taxes. They'll work 500 hours to drive 5,000 miles. At 25mph, they're sitting in their cars 200 hours. So they're spending 700 hours/year for going 5000 mile. So their AVERAGE speed becomes 7mph - a medium jogging pace, and half the speed of a bicycle.

I don't know, but I think I'd rather spend 7 hours a week BIKING, than 10 hours a week working and 4 hours a week driving, but I admit I don't always think like most, and I admit winter biking in Minnesota isn't the winter wonderland we might wish for! Oh, and I guess I didn't go on too many dates either as a teen!

This little example perhaps clarifies the idea of "dimininish returns". Those on the margins of the economy will someday discover, if they bothered to calculate the costs, that the economy of car ownership is not actually particularly profitable exchange. SURE, we all agree $8/hour is not a "living wage" anyway, but people and DO live on less when they have to IF they have family and friends to help with shelter costs.

It would seem someday some will exclaim "Hey, maybe it would be cheaper to live in an apartment a half mile from my work than to continue owning a car and driving 40 miles a day." Such insights MUST happen, perhaps already, and maybe like the "100th monkey", a change in consciousness will happen at a critical mass point? Who can say?

Will it be temporary $6/gallon gasoline that is the trigger? Will it be a war with Iran? Will it be a blackout? What event or events will lead? Or will it just be straw by straw finally breaking the camel's back without any single special event?

For me I suppose it was a foolish car accident February 2005 - running into a 3-car accident on the freeway in rushhour, pissed I failed to have collision insurance to cover my damaged car. Well, I'm not poor, and I'm not vowed from cars. I just note I can live without one for the present, and have some extra money to pay down my mortgage faster. But at least I've made one winter car-free and sitting on the cusp of a nice warm summer, right!?

Someday I'll have to join CAFIT "Coalition Advocating Freedom In Transporation", or something like that. We'll spout things like MLK's speech of freedom "I have a dream..." and offer our vision of communities that can exist without car ownership.

With peak oil I would have to imagine a "peak car" year will also exist - the year the largest number of cars ever manufactured will exist. Perhaps we could could largest "weight" of cars as well, knowing cars MUST get lighter in the future. I expect that date still hasn't occured. And then there's the year of "maximum running cars", after which car ownership declines, and "maximum driven miles" as well. Lots of economic measures to look forward to!

I dread times where people are forced to cut back ambitions because of economic pressures, but perhaps there's more like me out there, ready to change, willing to sacrifice a little, and hopeful voluntary powerdown is in our individual as well as collective best interests.

F**k the "price-gouging" debate

I try to be civil and considerate to other positions, but this really pisses me off.

http://www.startribune.com/587/story/426778.html There oughta be a law against gas price gouging, legislator says

Sen. Steve Murphy, DFL-Red Wing, chairman of the Senate's Transportation Committee, says..."Where I believe the gouging occurs is in places we have no control over. Arab nations, South America,"...

This argument is totally irrational. Pretend I have land. I paid $1000 for it 10 years ago. I want to sell it for $1 million dollars today. Is this "price-gouging" or is this "charging what the market will bear"?

Oil is a one-time resource. Once I sell it, it's GONE forever, and I'll never have access to it again. Just because the "process" of selling it might only cost me $10,000, that doesn't mean I should only be able to sell it for $20,000.

The FACT is I have a CHOICE whether to sell it or not. If I offer something for sale for $1 million, you can CHOOSE to buy it or not. I don't have a gun to your head MAKING you buy my product.

Fine, I accept the "price-gouging" argument says "When people are dependent upon a product and sellers demand prices that allow large profits, it's UNFAIR." However this "blackmail" has a limited lifetime. If I'm lucky enough to have a monopoly on a resource, I can make a lot of money, but if I get too greedy, eventually my customers will go elsewhere for their needs.

The IDEAL for sellers is not "gouging", but "stretching" costs to what the market will bear without the long term loss of sales.

Well, I shouldn't get so upset I suppose. Politicians are people too, and addicts like the rest of us on unsustainable resource consumption. I ought to just smile and say "Thanks for your input" and let them rant on their "fairness" issues.

All sensible people, with the slightest knowledge of economics, know that "interfering" with market prices hurts consumers in the long run.

The exceptions to the "noninterference" rule are nearly all on the LOW price side. When sellers can completely undersell their competition due to some short term advantage, they can force their competitors out of business, and eventually reap higher profits when they gain monopoly position.

IN FACT, this is what HAS HAPPENED in regards to oil. We've been CURSED by low energy prices that encourages us OVER-CONSUME and renewable energy resources can't compete. The market has been distorted by a false economy. NOW we actually have a chance to transition to more expensive alternatives which are more secure and more sustainable. Prices must rise and we have to adjust, and we'll be better off in the long run because of it.

Instead of cursing our "dealers" we ought to be thanking them for helping us see the light and see we can no longer accept our dependency upon them.

If politicians want to make a different, they should do things that encourage conservation and encourage the development of alternatives.

Anything else is just wasting precious time towards reducing our addiction before its too late.

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

Biomass for fuel?

Interesting article on use of switchgrass for ethanol production at:
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/7/03949/82426

Basically it matches previous conclusions I've heard - generally NO crop can be price-competitive as a source for generating a fuel alone, and only "coproducts" offer the door to viability. Ethanol from corn is a net energy loser, except for a useful coproduct of animal feed. Fast-growing popular trees and burned for electricity generation failed. Using chicken droppings was valuable , but only as a waste product.

I just think of the lumber industry as well. It works because trees require no input and are given decades to grow. However if you simply were harvesting trees purely for burning, I'm betting they'd also be too expensive.

If it wasn't for hydroelectric and wind turbines, I'd be completely hopeless for renewable energy. Overall I accept that if you properly account for depletion and recovery for growing things that nearly all farming is pretty much unsustainable. Farming for food at least provides more than just energy, but it just seems a crime to ever consider using biomass for burning, except for purely local uses which require minimal transportation.

The costs of transporting, drying, processing biomass for fuel will NEVER compete with how we use energy now.

When growing crops for food, it is NECESSARY and therefore you can justify depletion, but crops for fuel opens a dangerous place where short term profits can exist and demand can be unlimited.

I don't know if it is a SERIOUS concern for food and fuel to compete. Lester Brown, author of Plan B 2.0, thinks so. Perhaps rich countries can pay more for FUEL from poor countries than the same crop land could produce local food. CERTAINLY this is true in the illegal drug trade. But because machinery can need so much fuel, and people individually eat less it seems food will be affordable. On the reverse view I accept we're now making CHEAP FOOD via CHEAP FUELS, and food MUST get more expensive as our fossil fuels do.

In the SciFi series "Rama", A.C. Clarke and Gentry Lee envisioned spaceships full of bio-engineered plants (and animals) to keep the system running. Of course the humans that joined promply exploited the systems and risked destroying it. It is nice to imagine wise-beings might follow Nature's lead, and speeding up evolution into new environments. I suppose the thing to realize is that evolution itself is based on a lot of failure however well designed and WE would be vulnerable to these trials as well. Well, I mean for instance, if a huge meteorite hit the earth and darkened the sky, humans would die as fast as any higher animal perhaps, but perhaps some "quick planning" might allow for some sort of food production for a subset of our existing population.

Anyway, I can be just a little hopeful that if closed-systems are considered, that humans can do good with the environment, but as-is, I don't believe there's biological solutions to our energy demands now, and we're better off powering down and needing less than to try to recreate our needs within renewable sources.

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

IP CD5 endorsement

I'm going to the Independence Party CD5 endorsement convention in a few minutes.

The DFL endorsement was last weekend:
http://insideminnesotapolitics.blogspot.com/2006/04/exclusive-multi-podcast-of-dfl-cd-5.html

What issues I should bring to the IP candidates?
Mine are:
1) Energy security and conservation.
2) Federal budget deficit and debt.
3) The war in Iraq.

Ideally a person ought to not only have "issues" but solutions. I mean I can pick the brains of others, but if I don't know what is best, or what is realistic, what good can I do?!

My "answers" are:
1) Raise fuel costs in exchange for reduced payroll taxes to encourage conservation. Really "costs" alone might "solve" our energy issues because they create expectation in the market for higher prices and make alternatives competitive, even without subsidies.
2) I don't care too much how large the government is, although I'm glad others do care, but overall it seems clear "pay as you" go is the way, and if raising taxes is what's needed, I accept that.
3) The war in Iraq has cost us greatly. I agree with the positions that immediate withdrawal is unacceptable because of the instability it would cause, but it seems a process must be offered for looking at different futures for Iraq and see which people support, whether division into autonomous zones or even new countries, or holding unity. Anyway whatever the costs, I think setting a timetable for withdrawal is good because it forces issues, even at the risk of further violence.

Well, we shall see....

Monday, May 08, 2006

The Ethanol Solution?

60 minutes gave a report by this title on Sunday night:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/05/04/60minutes/main1588659.shtml

It was less than inspiring for me, not only because it neglects an honest cost-benefit analysis or any sort of scalability argument, but most of all because reports like this are like lullabies, lulling watchers into a false sense of security that things can go back to the good old days of cheap apparently unlimited energy.

I don't know if ethanol from corn is a true net energy source. I accept the possibility that it can reduce oil imports potentially. I accept the possibility that celluostic materials might someday be raw materials for ethanol production. There's numerous possible technical advances that may be within reach that'll help make a ethanol viable fuel.

What I don't see is any combination of solutions that will allow a "seamless transition" from past expectations into renewable production. I see every step, every "partial" solution in a transition will offer its own drawbacks and ultimately come out as higher energy costs.

From this perspective, I see a higher gasoline excise tax as a vital component to whatever transition we make. The fact is until we find our next standard, we're at risk, and so until we have a clear positive direction, the best solution is conservation - reducing our demand for energy and liquid fuels. And the best way to reduce demand is to guarantee higher prices - via fuel taxes.

I think I like the tax-exchange idea - reducing the payroll tax and substituting with a gasoline tax. This is the balance that lowers the cost of living for the lower income workers while rewarding decisions tha t reduce fuel consumption.

Anyway, I'm very disappointed in 60-minutes for their whitewashing. Even if we want to be optimistic, showing only the potential while neglecting difficulties means people will spend another year or whatever making decisions based on a hope fuel costs might go down again. And perhaps they will, for a time, and that's the problem. What sort of chump invests in alternative energy and inferior performance technology while there's still hope prices might go down?

Thursday, May 04, 2006

Miles per oat

Just a silly thought how "efficient" my bike is, pretending I could power it by "oat meal".

Organic oatmeal cost me $0.85/lb.
http://www.calorie-count.com/calories/item/8231.html
40g of oatmeal has 146 calories.
1655 Kcal/lb

Biking 1 hour takes about 550Kcal, so 1 lb of oat meal can take me 3 hours to "burn". If I can average a brisk 16 mph, I can go 48 miles /lb of oatmeal, or about 56 miles/$1, or about 0.0177/mile.

Now a nice moped can get about 100 mpg:
http://sportsbay.com/tospmo.html

At $2.70/gallon that's about 37 miles/$1, or $0.027/mile.

So my bike is only about 2/3 as expensive per mile as a moped. Of course a moped can go up to 30mph, while that's near "sprint" speed for professional bicyclists.

Well, one more comparison, if I take the bus to work on "nonpeak hours", it costs me $1.50 for a 6 mile ride. That's about $0.25/mile or about 10 times as much as my bike energy costs.

Of course buses count other costs too (even if also subsidized as well), and I don't have to insure or maintain the bus, and I can relax and read or whatever I like.

The SIMPLE analysis says:
Bikes are the perfect ideal for medium distances - say up to a 45 minute destination, and can be considered "free" up to this point since we need exercise anyway, but obviously over longer distances, at a daily use, there's diminishing returns on the time requirements.

Overall, I'm not a great advocate for "biological power" as long as we can get renewable energy from other sources like wind and water and solar, but I'm sure sooner or later the wise people will ween themselves from fossil fuels. I don't know how we'll run things without, but I expect we'll do with less energy.

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Carrying Capacity - land and people

All good political issues have long term consequences to consider.

One interesting one is immigration and another is population. The strongest pro-immigration movement wants to make the some maybe 10 million illegal immigrants into legal citizens. Their cause is full of pride - "Look at all the good work immigrants do for our economy."

If we were just talking 10 million people, once, end of story, sure, let'em all in, at least all the hard working ones who want to be law abiding citizens, but there's not just 10 million after all. Maybe 10 million now, but how many more would like their shot at coming here?

I read that the U.S./Mexican border was the most desperate border in the world between economic opportunity. Obviously at present, there'd be a huge potential influx if we opened the border completely, even if they'd say "we'll just come for jobs", and would like to move back if economic conditions were good "back home".

Well, we're a country of immigrants, and I accept despite being born here, my ancestral "155 year " isn't necessarily a long time for a place, and perhaps someday someone will tell me "go home", meaning "Norway" where my great-great grandfather came from with a suviving subset of his 12 children. And that history actually offers my point - Norway has limited farmable land and yet when times of success come, people celebrate by large familes and populations rise just as easily as wildlife population when a new source of food appears. That is to say "Migration" and "Unsustainable resources" combine create population problems.

Well, my main thoughts are that the U.S. might already be "overcapacity" give our consumption now using unsustainable fossil fuel, so more people now might "help" our economy, but make it harder to transition our economy when things turn sour. I don't quite have faith in this argument because we're already so far outside a sustainable economy, but it does hold some meaning.

Consider for instance "food productivity". In the past farms couldn't devote as much land to food production because they needed pastures to raise grass and hay for their horses. Using horses to "power" a farm is either more or less "land-efficient" to trying to grow fuel-crops for running tractors, but whatever is attempted, a more closed-loop farming approach would have much less NET food produced than current farms which use external inputs and crop sales income to pay for the inputs.

It seems an impossible problem for farmers (1) Large debt to purchase farms and interest payments to cover (2) High input costs for seed, fertilizers, and fuel (3) High risks of crop destruction due to weather factors (4) Low market prices for crops grown.

An interesting story is the President's "vision" two years ago to send humans back to the moon and on to Mars. Any plan for people on the moon or mars for an extended period would require very complex recycling loops for generating food, and oxygen and energy. On the moon the costs to get materials there are so high that it makes sense to invest in expensive systems that can recycle the best, while on earth we can be "dishonest" with our economics and discount the real costs of living by hidden costs in nonrenewable energy.

It is hard to imagine what a "sustainable farm" might look like. I imagine just like NASA experimenting with recycling systems for astronauts, the government might set up farms with potentially high startup costs, but which can tests what "throughput" you can get for sustainable farming. i.e. How much food can a farm produce without using any fossil fuels? How many people can it feed? What crops are needed to sustain a local population? What are the most land-efficient "fuels" that can power such a farm?

It seems like the Wind Turbines are pretty compatible with farming, and even if high start up costs. It would seem wind could generate more energy than is needed by farms, so income could be made from selling wind electricity. Although I don't know how much energy use on a farm can be converted to electrical sources.

From what I've read in general it seems like farm production of any sort best relies on "coproducts" - having a primary product PLUS other useful products which are easily generated in parallel, possibly via previous waste materials.

Well, whatever local "recycling" and efficiency that can be done, there's really no "closed loop" as long as nutrients are being sold off for food and fuel. Energy must be expended to replenish those extractions, and currently thats done by fertilizer inputs created or at least extracted with fossil fuels.

It would seem serious farming methods must do better to close the nutrient loop by say buying sewage treated materials back for fertilizers. I have no idea of the energy efficiency, but thinking back to the astronauts, that's what's needed. It is extravagant to move large amounts of materials hundreds of miles, but the loops must be closed somehow if we are to survive past our fossil fuel era.

It is just scary to try to imagine how much we are dependent upon cheap energy to run our complex civilizations, and it seems no stretch to imagine everything falling apart when we are no longer able to extract cheap energy as we have.

That goes back to population issues, and how much food can we grow for ourselves using local resources? How much land per person do we need?

I have admiration for the farmers of the past and present, even those who might be now judged to be depending on inputs they will someday have to abandon.

Subsidies of farming products now are a HUGE investment. I just wish the government might fund even 1% of the total into experimental farms whose purpose is to make "Energy self-sustaining farms". It seems like this is at least as much of a problem as our current transportation demands for oil.

Mission to Mars? How about mission 2100? How will we feed ourselves in 2100?!

Both questions excite the imagination and I'm hoping the second one would not only be CHEAPER, but infinitely more practical!

Monday, May 01, 2006

Letter to editor: Star Tribune: May 2, 2006

I'm sick and tired of the blaming and whining for "excess profit" taxes on the oil industry. Where else in the economy do we penalize people for selling a product at market prices? Maybe we should apply "excess profit" taxes to home sales? Maybe we should outlaw "home-flippers" who artificially raise property prices? There is no objective "fair price" for a one-time energy resource of fossil fuels. Replacement costs are more important than extraction costs. If I had an oil reserve, I'd be holding onto my investment and watch it rise in value. Wouldn't you?