Trump pivots center?
Trump's presidency persists despite my certainty it is doomed.
The most recent issue over DACA and the dreamers opens a strange door, on an issue that past presidents have not been able to solve, and mainly because past congresses have been unwilling to face. But the Dreamers open or reopens a door, first shutting a door Obama opened, and demanding Congress find a compromise, and confessing he'll restore Obama's solution if congress can't do better.
I can't say what should be done at all with illegals. What do you do with people who would rather live illegally, work illegally, to try to get a better life for their children, than go back their country of birth?
It is a surprising issue almost since you'd never assume anyone would want to live that way. And because this issue was ignored outside of criminal activity for decades, we now have kids who are becoming adults after living here all or most of their lives, and willing to do anything to stay, to have an opportunity to prove themselves.
And since the bleeding-heart Democrats have generally taken the side of the immigrants and minorities, they naturally would like to expand these illegals into citizens, and self-interestedly expand their voter base, so this obviously can never do. I mean certainly not all immigrants are Democrats, but if 75% are, that means 50% net gain in new democratic voters, so if we imagine 12 million illegals, when they're all adults, and if they all voted, that's a net gain of 6 million votes for Democrats.
And so the Republican party, whether by nature, or by necessity has taken up the anti-immigrant agenda, or anti-illegals in general, and lowered immigration in general, even if the corporate branch of the party has long been glad for hard working immigrants to come here and fill jobs that no one else is willing to do, or at least they can be paid less, and much less, if under the table.
And thus now come Trump, who is first condemned for reversing Obama DACA, and yet he pivots and says he believes in the Dreamers, and WANTS Congress to find a solution for them. And the standard corporate Republican is generally happy with more immigration, while the anti-immigrant voters who supported Trump are less happy at the prospects that Trump may expand immigration to these dreams, and of course it'll be more over time, as the families of dreamers will also get special treatment.
And I never thought Trump's claim "I have the biggest heart" was false, even if crazily hyperbolic, but it shows a side of him that wants to be loved, and wants people to get along, and so crazily, Trump may have the power to reverse this unfortunate partisan issue of immigration. And if the Republicans can embrace the Dreamers, the party's pro-immigration voices can rise again from the silencing, and perhaps new republican candidates will rise as immigrants, and it won't be 75%-25% D-R split, but closer to parity. And if anything can happen its easy to say it was because Trump is "above party" - he doesn't care what strengthens the Republican's fist of power.
538 offers 4 theories of Trump's working with Democrats, and overall I accept any or all of them, and more generally in the lines of Scott Adams. If Trump is still President in 12 months, it may because the Democrats themselves block impeachment, preferring amiable Trump to religious extremist Pence.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/4-theories-to-explain-why-trump-is-suddenly-working-with-democrats/
Overall, I'm sure we should all be scared of Trump as president, and I still think he's more willing than any president to take executive authority under crisis. He may not be reading about a goat during the next big terrorist attack, and he probably will mostly just follow his generals when it happens, but he can push the limits in the line of his fierce campaign rhetoric.
And if a new economic crisis happens, I suppose I feel less afraid of Trump as president. At least the Republicans control everything, so they are responsible for everything, and if their legacy is tax cuts for the wealthy just as the economy collapses, and millions are losing their jobs, they'll be blamed. OTOH, perhaps Trump will do what Obama wouldn't, and risk the economic recovery on trying to punish the most convenient scapegoats for the collapse, and surely they'll be many to choose between.
And he could end up looking like a Democrat of old, like FDR saying "I welcome their hatred" as he imposes old testament justice, or at least the appearance of it. And Trump may end up turning around and accepting Sander's Single payer health care as well. There are no limits to Trump's changing sides, if it means he gets to be the hero of the story.
The most recent issue over DACA and the dreamers opens a strange door, on an issue that past presidents have not been able to solve, and mainly because past congresses have been unwilling to face. But the Dreamers open or reopens a door, first shutting a door Obama opened, and demanding Congress find a compromise, and confessing he'll restore Obama's solution if congress can't do better.
I can't say what should be done at all with illegals. What do you do with people who would rather live illegally, work illegally, to try to get a better life for their children, than go back their country of birth?
It is a surprising issue almost since you'd never assume anyone would want to live that way. And because this issue was ignored outside of criminal activity for decades, we now have kids who are becoming adults after living here all or most of their lives, and willing to do anything to stay, to have an opportunity to prove themselves.
And since the bleeding-heart Democrats have generally taken the side of the immigrants and minorities, they naturally would like to expand these illegals into citizens, and self-interestedly expand their voter base, so this obviously can never do. I mean certainly not all immigrants are Democrats, but if 75% are, that means 50% net gain in new democratic voters, so if we imagine 12 million illegals, when they're all adults, and if they all voted, that's a net gain of 6 million votes for Democrats.
And so the Republican party, whether by nature, or by necessity has taken up the anti-immigrant agenda, or anti-illegals in general, and lowered immigration in general, even if the corporate branch of the party has long been glad for hard working immigrants to come here and fill jobs that no one else is willing to do, or at least they can be paid less, and much less, if under the table.
And thus now come Trump, who is first condemned for reversing Obama DACA, and yet he pivots and says he believes in the Dreamers, and WANTS Congress to find a solution for them. And the standard corporate Republican is generally happy with more immigration, while the anti-immigrant voters who supported Trump are less happy at the prospects that Trump may expand immigration to these dreams, and of course it'll be more over time, as the families of dreamers will also get special treatment.
And I never thought Trump's claim "I have the biggest heart" was false, even if crazily hyperbolic, but it shows a side of him that wants to be loved, and wants people to get along, and so crazily, Trump may have the power to reverse this unfortunate partisan issue of immigration. And if the Republicans can embrace the Dreamers, the party's pro-immigration voices can rise again from the silencing, and perhaps new republican candidates will rise as immigrants, and it won't be 75%-25% D-R split, but closer to parity. And if anything can happen its easy to say it was because Trump is "above party" - he doesn't care what strengthens the Republican's fist of power.
538 offers 4 theories of Trump's working with Democrats, and overall I accept any or all of them, and more generally in the lines of Scott Adams. If Trump is still President in 12 months, it may because the Democrats themselves block impeachment, preferring amiable Trump to religious extremist Pence.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/4-theories-to-explain-why-trump-is-suddenly-working-with-democrats/
Overall, I'm sure we should all be scared of Trump as president, and I still think he's more willing than any president to take executive authority under crisis. He may not be reading about a goat during the next big terrorist attack, and he probably will mostly just follow his generals when it happens, but he can push the limits in the line of his fierce campaign rhetoric.
And if a new economic crisis happens, I suppose I feel less afraid of Trump as president. At least the Republicans control everything, so they are responsible for everything, and if their legacy is tax cuts for the wealthy just as the economy collapses, and millions are losing their jobs, they'll be blamed. OTOH, perhaps Trump will do what Obama wouldn't, and risk the economic recovery on trying to punish the most convenient scapegoats for the collapse, and surely they'll be many to choose between.
And he could end up looking like a Democrat of old, like FDR saying "I welcome their hatred" as he imposes old testament justice, or at least the appearance of it. And Trump may end up turning around and accepting Sander's Single payer health care as well. There are no limits to Trump's changing sides, if it means he gets to be the hero of the story.
posted by Ares Olympus at 2:24 AM
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